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Cuiaba vs Cacerense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) Arena Pantanal, Cuiabá
Cuiaba Logo

Cuiaba

2 - 0
FT
Cacerense Logo

Cacerense

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. The second leg ended 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Cuiaba
15%
Draws
32%
Cacerense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cuiaba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Cacerense haven't matched Cuiaba's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Cuiaba's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Cuiaba have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Cuiaba, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Cuiaba have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Cuiaba Clean Sheet 20%
Cacerense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cuiaba Cacerense
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 16 11
Draws 9 4
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.48 1.24
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.07
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Cuiaba vs Cacerense
2:0
Sep 26, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Cacerense vs Cuiaba
2:5
Mar 4, 2023 Matogrossense
Cacerense vs Cuiaba
0:1
Mar 12, 2015 Matogrossense
Cacerense vs Cuiaba
0:2
Feb 11, 2015 Matogrossense
Cuiaba vs Cacerense
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cuiaba 76 / 100
Cacerense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cuiaba Cacerense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cuiaba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Cuiaba scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Cacerense let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Cuiaba remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cuiaba VS Cacerense
1.63 Goals Scored 1.4
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 80%
38% Over 2.5 60%
13% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

Cuiaba

(Home)
07 Oct
Vila Nova FC
0 : 0
Cuiaba
03 Oct
Cuiaba
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
03 Oct
Cuiaba
2 : 0
Cacerense
27 Sept
CRB
3 : 0
Cuiaba
26 Sept
Cacerense
2 : 5
Cuiaba
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Cacerense

(Away)
03 Oct
Cuiaba
2 : 0
Cacerense
26 Sept
Cacerense
2 : 5
Cuiaba
19 Sept
Cacerense
3 : 2
Campo Novo
12 Sept
Sorriso EC
1 : 2
Cacerense
07 Jun
Sinop FC
2 : 0
Cacerense
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uniao Rondonopolis 6 4 1 1 7:6 13
2 Chapada 5 3 1 1 11:4 10
3 Santa Cruz MT 5 2 0 3 8:7 6
4 Várzea Grande EC 6 2 0 4 10:15 6
5 Uirapuru 6 1 2 3 7:11 5
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cuiaba 4 4 0 0 13:2 12
2 Sorriso EC 4 2 0 2 9:7 6
3 Cacerense 4 2 0 2 7:10 6
4 Campo Novo 4 0 0 4 3:13 0
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)