Sport Picks

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Cuiaba vs Nova Mutum EC

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense Arena Pantanal, Cuiabá
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Luiz Felipe
36' Event
Mateus Santos
45' Event
Yan Suhet

AI Match Summary

The Matogrossense game between Cuiaba and Nova Mutum EC finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cuiaba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Cuiaba
30%
Draws
35%
Nova Mutum EC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Nova Mutum EC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Cuiaba's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Cuiaba Clean Sheet 68%
Nova Mutum EC Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cuiaba Nova Mutum EC
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 13 7
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 0.94 1.23
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Matogrossense
Cuiaba vs Nova Mutum EC
2:1
Feb 8, 2025 Matogrossense
Cuiaba vs Nova Mutum EC
5:0
Sep 21, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Cuiaba vs Nova Mutum EC
0:1
Feb 24, 2024 Matogrossense
Cuiaba vs Nova Mutum EC
2:2
Feb 16, 2023 Matogrossense
Nova Mutum EC vs Cuiaba
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cuiaba Compare

Top Goalscorer Luiz Felipe
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mateus Santos
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Nova Mutum EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Yan Suhet
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cuiaba 59 / 100
Nova Mutum EC 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cuiaba Nova Mutum EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cuiaba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Solid form: Cuiaba remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Nova Mutum EC has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Cuiaba scored in 53% of their last 32 games.

Scoring Trends

Cuiaba VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Cuiaba

(Home)
22 Aug
Cuiaba
1 : 1
Goias
19 Aug
Cuiaba
1 : 0
Operario-PR
15 Aug
Ceara
1 : 3
Cuiaba
09 Aug
Cuiaba
1 : 1
Fortaleza
27 Jul
Sport Recife
1 : 1
Cuiaba
Page 1 of 7

Nova Mutum EC

(Away)
11 Feb
Operario VG
3 : 2
Nova Mutum EC
08 Feb
Nova Mutum EC
2 : 1
Mixto
05 Feb
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Nova Mutum EC
31 Jan
Cuiaba
2 : 1
Nova Mutum EC
28 Jan
Nova Mutum EC
3 : 2
Chapada
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Luverdense 9 5 2 2 7:3 17
2 Mixto 9 4 3 2 13:4 15
3 Operario VG 9 4 2 3 9:9 14
4 Sport Sinop 9 3 4 2 6:4 13
5 Cuiaba 9 3 3 3 8:8 12
6 Nova Mutum EC 9 3 3 3 13:15 12
7 Chapada 9 3 2 4 12:13 11
8 Uniao Rondonopolis 9 2 4 3 7:7 10
9 Primavera AC 9 1 7 1 6:9 10
10 Várzea Grande EC 9 1 2 6 5:14 5
Promotion - Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Matogrossense 2 2027 (Main)