Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cuiaba vs Vila Nova FC

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Arena Pantanal, Cuiabá
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Rodrigo Rodrigues In: Kauan Cristtyan
Out: Rodrigo Rodrigues
46'
Sub
Tiago Pagnussat In: Marcelo C.
Out: Tiago Pagnussat
58'
Sub
Vinicius Peixoto In: Mateus Santos
Out: Vinicius Peixoto

AI Match Summary

Cuiaba in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cuiaba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Cuiaba
33%
Draws
27%
Vila Nova FC
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Cuiaba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vila Nova FC lately — more wins on the board than Cuiaba.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Cuiaba taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Cuiaba Clean Sheet 68%
Vila Nova FC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cuiaba Vila Nova FC
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 7 14
Draws 12 8
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.25 1.38
Goals Conceded 1 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2026 Serie B
Cuiaba vs Vila Nova FC
1:0
Sep 24, 2025 Serie B
Vila Nova FC vs Cuiaba
2:2
May 27, 2025 Serie B
Cuiaba vs Vila Nova FC
1:0
May 11, 2024 Copa Verde
Cuiaba vs Vila Nova FC
4:3
Apr 17, 2024 Copa Verde
Vila Nova FC vs Cuiaba
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cuiaba Compare

Top Goalscorer Calebe Costa
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Vila Nova FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cuiaba 50 / 100
Vila Nova FC 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cuiaba Vila Nova FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CUI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vila Nova FC has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Cuiaba has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Vila Nova FC registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cuiaba VS Vila Nova FC
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Cuiaba

(Home)
27 Jul
Sport Recife
1 : 1
Cuiaba
23 Jul
Cuiaba
0 : 1
Atletico GO
17 Jul
EC Juventude
2 : 0
Cuiaba
12 Jul
Sao Bernardo
2 : 2
Cuiaba
02 Jul
Cuiaba
1 : 0
America MG
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Vila Nova FC

(Away)
27 Jul
CRB
2 : 0
Vila Nova FC
22 Jul
Vila Nova FC
2 : 1
Fortaleza
18 Jul
Criciuma
2 : 0
Vila Nova FC
10 Jul
EC Juventude
1 : 0
Vila Nova FC
06 Jul
Vila Nova FC
2 : 1
Sao Bernardo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Criciuma20117223:1240
2EC Juventude20105522:1235
3Operario-PR20105528:2535
4Fortaleza20104623:1934
5Vila Nova FC20104627:2434
6Novorizontino2096532:1933
7Atletico GO2087523:2031
8CRB2085731:3229
9Goias2085721:2629
10Sport Recife20611325:1929
11Athletic Club20610419:1828
12Sao Bernardo2076728:2327
13Nautico2074924:2425
14Cuiaba20510515:1525
15Botafogo SP2066824:2124
16Ceara2057820:2522
17Londrina20551027:3120
18Avai20551021:2720
19America MG20251314:3111
20Ponte Preta20231515:399
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)