Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cuiaba vs Várzea Grande EC

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense Arena Pantanal, Cuiabá
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Luis A.

AI Match Summary

The Matogrossense game between Cuiaba and Várzea Grande EC finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Várzea Grande EC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Cuiaba
15%
Draws
32%
Várzea Grande EC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cuiaba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cuiaba come out ahead of Várzea Grande EC on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Cuiaba's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Cuiaba Clean Sheet 68%
Várzea Grande EC Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cuiaba Várzea Grande EC
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 11 7
Draws 10 6
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.18 1.11
Goals Conceded 0.89 1.74
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Matogrossense
Cuiaba vs Várzea Grande EC
0:1
Mar 8, 2019 Matogrossense
Cuiaba vs Várzea Grande EC
5:0
Mar 12, 2017 Matogrossense
Várzea Grande EC vs Cuiaba
0:5
Feb 5, 2017 Matogrossense
Cuiaba vs Várzea Grande EC
4:0
Apr 17, 2016 Matogrossense
Várzea Grande EC vs Cuiaba
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cuiaba Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Várzea Grande EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Luis A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cuiaba 95 / 100
Várzea Grande EC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cuiaba Várzea Grande EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cuiaba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Várzea Grande EC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.

Cuiaba's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Cuiaba remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cuiaba VS Várzea Grande EC
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cuiaba

(Home)
17 Sept
Cuiaba
4 : 0
Sorriso EC
13 Sept
Novorizontino
1 : 1
Cuiaba
13 Sept
Campo Novo
0 : 2
Cuiaba
08 Sept
Cuiaba
3 : 0
Athletic Club
04 Sept
Criciuma
2 : 0
Cuiaba
Page 1 of 6

Várzea Grande EC

(Away)
20 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Uniao Rondonopolis
13 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 2
Várzea Grande EC
08 Feb
Cuiaba
0 : 1
Várzea Grande EC
05 Feb
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Nova Mutum EC
01 Feb
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 2
Sport Sinop
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Luverdense 9 5 2 2 7:3 17
2 Mixto 9 4 3 2 13:4 15
3 Operario VG 9 4 2 3 9:9 14
4 Sport Sinop 9 3 4 2 6:4 13
5 Cuiaba 9 3 3 3 8:8 12
6 Nova Mutum EC 9 3 3 3 13:15 12
7 Chapada 9 3 2 4 12:13 11
8 Uniao Rondonopolis 9 2 4 3 7:7 10
9 Primavera AC 9 1 7 1 6:9 10
10 Várzea Grande EC 9 1 2 6 5:14 5
Promotion - Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Matogrossense 2 2027 (Main)