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Stadium Background

Cusco vs Cajamarca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Soto D.
28'
Duarte B.
32' Event
Colman I.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Cusco in this Liga 1 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cusco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Cusco
15%
Draws
0%
Cajamarca
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cusco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cusco lately — more wins on the board than Cajamarca.
  • Win probability leans Cusco's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Cusco Clean Sheet 19%
Cajamarca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cusco Cajamarca
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 4
Draws 4 9
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 1.37 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Liga 1
Cusco vs Cajamarca
4:1
Feb 13, 2026 Liga 1
Cajamarca vs Cusco
1:0
Aug 4, 2025 Liga 1
Cajamarca vs Cusco
1:2
Mar 1, 2025 Liga 1
Cusco vs Cajamarca
1:1
Jul 19, 2024 Liga 1
Cajamarca vs Cusco
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cusco Compare

Top Goalscorer Callejo F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Colitto L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Cajamarca Compare

Top Goalscorer Munoz A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cusco 76 / 100
Cajamarca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cusco Cajamarca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cusco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cajamarca's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 29 matches.

Difficult form: Cajamarca registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Cusco's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Cusco VS Cajamarca
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Cusco

(Home)
19 Sept
FC Cajamarca
1 : 2
Cusco
12 Sept
Cusco
0 : 1
FBC Melgar
05 Sept
Cusco
2 : 0
Moquegua
31 Aug
Cienciano
1 : 2
Cusco
23 Aug
Deportivo Garcilaso
4 : 1
Cusco
Page 1 of 6

Cajamarca

(Away)
20 Sept
Sport Huancayo
3 : 2
Cajamarca
11 Sept
Cajamarca
1 : 2
Juan Pablo II
04 Sept
Alianza Atl.
3 : 2
Cajamarca
29 Aug
Cajamarca
2 : 4
Universitario de Deportes
25 Aug
Alianza Atl.
2 : 1
Cajamarca
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportivo Garcilaso 10 7 1 2 18:6 22
2 Universitario de Deportes 10 6 2 2 19:16 20
3 Sporting Cristal 10 6 1 3 20:10 19
4 Alianza Atl. 10 6 1 3 20:17 19
5 Sport Huancayo 10 6 1 3 16:13 19
6 Juan Pablo II 10 5 3 2 20:12 18
7 FBC Melgar 10 5 3 2 16:9 18
8 Sport Boys 10 5 3 2 14:7 18
9 Cusco 10 6 0 4 19:14 18
10 Atletico Grau 11 5 2 4 14:13 17
11 A. Lima 10 4 4 2 14:10 16
12 Cienciano 11 3 2 6 14:18 11
13 FC Cajamarca 10 3 1 6 18:24 10
14 Comerciantes Unidos 10 2 3 5 17:18 9
15 Los Chankas 11 2 3 6 11:24 9
16 Moquegua 11 1 4 6 7:19 7
17 AD Tarma 10 1 2 7 7:21 5
18 Cajamarca 10 0 2 8 11:24 2
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)