Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cusco vs Cajamarca

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Soto D.
28'
Duarte B.
32' Event
Colman I.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Cusco in this Liga 1 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cusco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Cusco
20%
Draws
15%
Cajamarca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cusco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cusco lately — more wins on the board than Cajamarca.
  • Win probability leans Cusco's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Cusco Clean Sheet 12%
Cajamarca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cusco Cajamarca
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 7
Draws 4 10
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.4 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Liga 1
Cusco vs Cajamarca
4:1
Feb 13, 2026 Liga 1
Cajamarca vs Cusco
1:0
Aug 4, 2025 Liga 1
Cajamarca vs Cusco
1:2
Mar 1, 2025 Liga 1
Cusco vs Cajamarca
1:1
Jul 19, 2024 Liga 1
Cajamarca vs Cusco
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cusco Compare

Top Goalscorer Callejo F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Colitto L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Cajamarca Compare

Top Goalscorer Munoz A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cusco 47 / 100
Cajamarca 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cusco Cajamarca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cusco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cajamarca's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Attacking prowess: Cusco scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Cusco stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cusco VS Cajamarca
2 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Cusco

(Home)
14 Aug
Cusco
2 : 0
Juan Pablo II
07 Aug
Comerciantes Unidos
3 : 1
Cusco
01 Aug
Cusco
4 : 1
Cajamarca
25 Jul
Universitario de Deportes
2 : 1
Cusco
18 Jul
Cusco
4 : 1
Alianza Atl.
Page 1 of 6

Cajamarca

(Away)
16 Aug
A. Lima
1 : 0
Cajamarca
08 Aug
Cajamarca
1 : 1
AD Tarma
01 Aug
Cusco
4 : 1
Cajamarca
26 Jul
Cajamarca
0 : 0
Moquegua
18 Jul
Atletico Grau
3 : 1
Cajamarca
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A. Lima 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
2 Sporting Cristal 5 3 1 1 9:4 10
3 FBC Melgar 5 3 1 1 10:6 10
4 Deportivo Garcilaso 5 3 1 1 5:2 10
5 Universitario de Deportes 5 3 1 1 8:7 10
6 Cusco 5 3 0 2 12:7 9
7 Sport Boys 5 2 2 1 5:3 8
8 Sport Huancayo 5 2 1 2 7:7 7
9 Atletico Grau 5 2 1 2 4:4 7
10 Alianza Atl. 5 2 1 2 7:9 7
11 Los Chankas 5 2 1 2 6:9 7
12 Comerciantes Unidos 5 1 2 2 9:9 5
13 Juan Pablo II 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
14 FC Cajamarca 5 1 1 3 9:11 4
15 Moquegua 5 0 4 1 3:5 4
16 Cienciano 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
17 AD Tarma 5 0 2 3 3:7 2
18 Cajamarca 5 0 2 3 3:9 2
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)