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Cyprus vs Romania

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 AEK Arena
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AI Match Summary

Cyprus play Romania in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Cyprus averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.89 conceded. Romania averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Cyprus won 0, Romania won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 9, 2025 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Cyprus and 1.81 for Romania. This points to a Romania double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Cyprus
20%
Draws
52%
Romania
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Romania

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Cyprus picked up more points recently compared to Romania.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Cyprus Clean Sheet 11%
Romania Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cyprus Romania
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 8 16
Draws 5 7
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.21 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.89 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2025 World Championship
Cyprus vs Romania
2:2
Jun 10, 2025 World Championship
Romania vs Cyprus
2:0
Nov 18, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Romania vs Cyprus
4:1
Oct 12, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Cyprus vs Romania
0:3
Feb 9, 2011 Friendly International
Cyprus vs Romania
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cyprus Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Romania Compare

Top Goalscorer Man D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dragusin R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cyprus 27 / 100
Romania 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cyprus Romania

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Romania or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Cyprus attacking → ← attacking Romania

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cyprus scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

Romania let in goals in 66% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Cyprus went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Romania lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 55
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sweden651019:416
2Slovakia641110:513
3Estonia61143:94
4Azerbaijan60153:171
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Romania660018:318
2Kosovo640210:712
3Cyprus62044:156
4Lithuania60064:110
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Northern Ireland632111:311
2Bulgaria62313:69
3Belarus61413:47
4Luxembourg60333:73
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1North Macedonia651010:116
2Armenia62138:97
3Faroe Islands61325:66
4Latvia61144:114