Sport Picks

Stadium Background

D. Puerto Montt vs San Felipe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Chile Chile

Liga de Ascenso Estadio Regional de Chinquihue, Puerto Montt
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
08:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

D. Puerto Montt host San Felipe in the Liga de Ascenso. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: D. Puerto Montt at 0.93 goals for, 1.27 against; San Felipe at 0.66 for, 1.48 against. Past meetings favor D. Puerto Montt slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 30, 2026, ending 1:0. The numbers (1.13 xG vs 1.00) point toward D. Puerto Montt. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
D. Puerto Montt
20%
Draws
32%
San Felipe
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: D. Puerto Montt

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • D. Puerto Montt carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 48% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
D. Puerto Montt Clean Sheet 20%
San Felipe Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric D. Puerto Montt San Felipe
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 6
Draws 4 8
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 0.93 0.66
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt
1:0
Oct 14, 2023 Liga de Ascenso
San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt
0:1
Jun 3, 2023 Liga de Ascenso
D. Puerto Montt vs San Felipe
1:1
Nov 11, 2022 Liga de Ascenso
San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt
0:1
Nov 6, 2022 Liga de Ascenso
D. Puerto Montt vs San Felipe
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

D. Puerto Montt 31 / 100
San Felipe 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
D. Puerto Montt San Felipe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick D. Puerto Montt Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

D. Puerto Montt's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

San Felipe has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: San Felipe registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

D. Puerto Montt VS San Felipe
1 Goals Scored 0.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

D. Puerto Montt

(Home)
03 Oct
Copiapo
3 : 0
D. Puerto Montt
29 Sept
D. Puerto Montt
0 : 1
Colo Colo
26 Sept
Nublense
2 : 1
D. Puerto Montt
22 Sept
D. Puerto Montt
2 : 0
Nublense
13 Sept
Magallanes
2 : 0
D. Puerto Montt
Page 1 of 6

San Felipe

(Away)
04 Oct
San Felipe
0 : 2
Deportes Iquique
30 Sept
San Felipe
0 : 1
San Luis
26 Sept
San Felipe
1 : 4
Copiapo
05 Sept
Magallanes
0 : 0
San Felipe
29 Aug
San Felipe
0 : 0
Deportes Santa Cruz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cobreloa 26 13 9 4 44:27 48
2 San Luis 26 13 8 5 41:29 47
3 Magallanes 27 13 7 7 44:39 46
4 S. Wanderers 27 12 8 7 42:30 44
5 Antofagasta 26 11 8 7 44:26 41
6 Recoleta 27 11 8 8 39:36 41
7 San Marcos de Arica 26 10 9 7 33:24 39
8 Copiapo 26 10 7 9 40:39 37
9 U. Espanola 26 10 6 10 32:34 36
10 Deportes Temuco 27 9 8 10 42:37 35
11 D. Puerto Montt 26 10 4 12 26:34 34
12 Deportes Iquique 26 7 10 9 35:30 31
13 Curico Unido 27 7 9 11 24:40 27
14 Deportes Santa Cruz 27 4 10 13 28:42 22
15 San Felipe 26 5 7 14 16:44 22
16 Rangers 26 4 6 16 23:42 18
Promotion - Liga de Primera 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Liga de Primera (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga de Primera (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda Division 2027 (Main)