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Darlington FC vs Carlisle - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Bunker H.
24' Event
Azeez M.
27' Event
Linney R.

AI Match Summary

Carlisle in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Carlisle.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Darlington FC
30%
Draws
41%
Carlisle
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Carlisle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Carlisle have won more games recently than Darlington FC.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Darlington FC Clean Sheet 10%
Carlisle Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Darlington FC Carlisle
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 13
Draws 3 8
Losses 17 7
Goals Scored 1.31 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 21, 2026 Club Friendly
Darlington FC vs Carlisle
2:4
Mar 18, 2006 League Two
Darlington FC vs Carlisle
0:5
Dec 26, 2005 League Two
Carlisle vs Darlington FC
1:1
Dec 28, 2003 League Two
Carlisle vs Darlington FC
1:1
Sep 5, 2003 League Two
Darlington FC vs Carlisle
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Darlington FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Hedley B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Carlisle Compare

Top Goalscorer Bunker H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Azeez M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Darlington FC 30 / 100
Carlisle 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Darlington FC Carlisle

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Darlington FC found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Carlisle's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

Darlington FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Darlington FC VS Carlisle
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Darlington FC

(Home)
10 Oct
Darlington FC
1 : 1
Merthyr Town
03 Oct
Morecambe
3 : 0
Darlington FC
26 Sept
Darlington FC
1 : 1
Hebburn Town
19 Sept
Redcar Town
2 : 4
Darlington FC
12 Sept
Marine
2 : 1
Darlington FC
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Carlisle

(Away)
10 Oct
Carlisle
0 : 0
Kidderminster
03 Oct
Aldershot
1 : 3
Carlisle
29 Sept
AFC Fylde
0 : 2
Carlisle
26 Sept
Carlisle
2 : 5
Woking
19 Sept
Eastleigh
1 : 0
Carlisle
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