Sport Picks
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Alkmaar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Netherlands
Eerste Divisie De Vijverberg, Doetinchem 
Match Events
11'
11'
Oerip J.
Assist: Kovacs B.
15'
15'
Warmerdam D.
15'
15'
Oufkir A.
AI Match Summary
Jong AZ Alkmaar in this Eerste Divisie matchup, with the score ending 2-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jong AZ Alkmaar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
20%
47%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Jong AZ Alkmaar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Jong AZ Alkmaar have won more games recently than De Graafschap.
- Win probability leans Jong AZ Alkmaar's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Eerste Divisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%
De Graafschap Clean Sheet 10%
Jong AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | De Graafschap | Jong AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 6 | 4 |
| Losses | 13 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.79 | 2.18 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.34 | 1.71 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 2.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 17, 2026 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
2:5
Apr 6, 2026 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
5:0
Sep 22, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong AZ Alkmaar vs De Graafschap
1:3
Feb 21, 2025 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
5:1
Sep 23, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Jong AZ Alkmaar vs De Graafschap
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
De Graafschap Compare
Top Goalscorer Warmerdam D.
1 Goals Assists Leader van Zijl B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Jong AZ Alkmaar Compare
Top Goalscorer Oufkir A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Oerip J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
De Graafschap 10 / 100
Jong AZ Alkmaar 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
De Graafschap Jong AZ Alkmaar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Jong AZ Alkmaar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
De Graafschap found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).
Jong AZ Alkmaar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.
Games between these two average 5.20 goals.
Solid form: De Graafschap remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
De Graafschap VS Jong AZ Alkmaar
1.13 Goals Scored 3
2.5 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
De Graafschap
(Home) 03 Oct
Eindhoven FC
2 : 2 De Graafschap
27 Sept
De Graafschap
1 : 0 Den Bosch
20 Sept
De Graafschap
1 : 2 NAC Breda
11 Sept
FC Emmen
1 : 2 De Graafschap
04 Sept
Heracles
5 : 0 De Graafschap
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
De Graafschap
1 : 0 Den Bosch
20 Sept
De Graafschap
1 : 2 NAC Breda
29 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 4 Almere City
17 Aug
De Graafschap
2 : 5 Jong AZ Alkmaar
01 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 5 Excelsior
Page 1 of 3
Jong AZ Alkmaar
(Away) 18 Sept
Jong AZ Alkmaar
4 : 1 FC Volendam
14 Sept
Jong PSV
1 : 1 Jong AZ Alkmaar
11 Sept
Heracles
3 : 2 Jong AZ Alkmaar
05 Sept
Dordrecht
3 : 6 Jong AZ Alkmaar
31 Aug
Jong AZ Alkmaar
2 : 1 Jong Utrecht
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Jong PSV
1 : 1 Jong AZ Alkmaar
11 Sept
Heracles
3 : 2 Jong AZ Alkmaar
05 Sept
Dordrecht
3 : 6 Jong AZ Alkmaar
21 Aug
FC Emmen
3 : 1 Jong AZ Alkmaar
17 Aug
De Graafschap
2 : 5 Jong AZ Alkmaar
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28:12 | 22 |
| 2 | Almere City | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19:7 | 19 |
| 3 | Venlo | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 23:14 | 18 |
| 4 | FC Emmen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19:18 | 16 |
| 5 | Maastricht | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Roda | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9:7 | 15 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 19:12 | 14 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15:13 | 14 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19:19 | 14 |
| 10 | Jong AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22:17 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 20:17 | 12 |
| 12 | Jong PSV | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:16 | 12 |
| 13 | Eindhoven FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15:19 | 11 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15:16 | 9 |
| 15 | TOP Oss | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12:14 | 9 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13:18 | 8 |
| 17 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13:22 | 8 |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13:24 | 8 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:22 | 8 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 15:21 | 7 |
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
