Sport Picks
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
Netherlands
Eerste Divisie De Vijverberg, Doetinchem 
Match Events
11'
11'
Oerip J.
Assist: Kovacs B.
15'
15'
Warmerdam D.
15'
15'
Oufkir A.
AI Match Summary
Jong AZ Alkmaar in this Eerste Divisie matchup, with the score ending 2-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jong AZ Alkmaar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
21%
15%
64%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jong AZ Alkmaar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Jong AZ Alkmaar average 2.14 goals a game right now, well clear of De Graafschap's 1.97.
- Win probability leans Jong AZ Alkmaar's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Eerste Divisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
De Graafschap Clean Sheet 10%
Jong AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | De Graafschap | Jong AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 12 |
| Draws | 7 | 3 |
| Losses | 11 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.97 | 2.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.13 | 1.89 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 2.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 17, 2026 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
2:5
Apr 6, 2026 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
5:0
Sep 22, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong AZ Alkmaar vs De Graafschap
1:3
Feb 21, 2025 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
5:1
Sep 23, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Jong AZ Alkmaar vs De Graafschap
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
De Graafschap Compare
Top Goalscorer Warmerdam D.
1 Goals Assists Leader van Zijl B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Jong AZ Alkmaar Compare
Top Goalscorer Oufkir A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Oerip J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.55
Avg xA / game 1.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
De Graafschap 10 / 100
Jong AZ Alkmaar 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
De Graafschap Jong AZ Alkmaar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Jong AZ Alkmaar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
De Graafschap found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (30 games).
Jong AZ Alkmaar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.
Games between these two average 5.20 goals.
Solid form: De Graafschap remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
De Graafschap VS Jong AZ Alkmaar
1.75 Goals Scored 2.63
3 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
De Graafschap
(Home) 17 Aug
De Graafschap
2 : 5 Jong AZ Alkmaar
09 Aug
Helmond Sport
1 : 1 De Graafschap
01 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 5 Excelsior
25 Jul
De Graafschap
4 : 2 Kifisia
17 Jul
De Graafschap
3 : 6 Telstar
Page 1 of 6
17 Aug
De Graafschap
2 : 5 Jong AZ Alkmaar
01 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 5 Excelsior
25 Jul
De Graafschap
4 : 2 Kifisia
17 Jul
De Graafschap
3 : 6 Telstar
12 Jul
De Graafschap
1 : 2 AEK
Page 1 of 3
Jong AZ Alkmaar
(Away) 17 Aug
De Graafschap
2 : 5 Jong AZ Alkmaar
10 Aug
Jong AZ Alkmaar
0 : 1 Eindhoven FC
01 Aug
IJsselmeervogels
1 : 7 Jong AZ Alkmaar
28 Jul
Quick Boys
1 : 4 Jong AZ Alkmaar
25 Jul
Jong Sparta Rotterdam
2 : 3 Jong AZ Alkmaar
Page 1 of 6
17 Aug
De Graafschap
2 : 5 Jong AZ Alkmaar
01 Aug
IJsselmeervogels
1 : 7 Jong AZ Alkmaar
28 Jul
Quick Boys
1 : 4 Jong AZ Alkmaar
25 Jul
Jong Sparta Rotterdam
2 : 3 Jong AZ Alkmaar
04 Jul
Waalwijk
1 : 1 Jong AZ Alkmaar
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Emmen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 2 | Heracles | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:5 | 6 |
| 3 | Maastricht | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 4 | Almere City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 5 | Vitesse | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 6 | Dordrecht | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 7 | FC Volendam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 8 | Jong AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 9 | Venlo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 10 | Eindhoven FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 11 | Roda | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 12 | Jong PSV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 13 | NAC Breda | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 15 | Den Bosch | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:6 | 1 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5:8 | 0 |
| 19 | Jong Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 20 | TOP Oss | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | 0 |
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
