Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Defensor Sp. vs Ferro Carril

Uruguay Uruguay

Copa Uruguay 2024 Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
Defensor Sp. Logo

Defensor Sp.

6 - 0
FT
Ferro Carril Logo

Ferro Carril

Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Cadenazzi F.
27'
Barco A.
33'
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 6-0, with Defensor Sp. advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Defensor Sp.
20%
Draws
51%
Ferro Carril
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ferro Carril

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Medium Confidence
  • Defensor Sp. carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Defensor Sp. have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Defensor Sp., who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 68%
Ferro Carril Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Defensor Sp. Ferro Carril
Matches Played 32 6
Wins 8 4
Draws 11 0
Losses 13 2
Goals Scored 0.75 0
Goals Conceded 0.63 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 31, 2024 Copa Uruguay
Defensor Sp. vs Ferro Carril
6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Defensor Sp. Compare

Top Goalscorer Cadenazzi F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Barco A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Ferro Carril Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Defensor Sp. 41 / 100
Ferro Carril 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Defensor Sp. Ferro Carril

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DEF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Ferro Carril conceded in 83% of 6 recent games.

Games between these two average 6.00 goals.

Defensor Sp.'s goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Solid form: Defensor Sp. remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Defensor Sp. VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Defensor Sp.

(Home)
03 Aug
Defensor Sp.
2 : 1
CA Cerro
25 Jul
Defensor Sp.
1 : 2
Liverpool M.
13 Jul
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
04 Jul
Cruzeiro
2 : 0
Defensor Sp.
07 Jun
Defensor Sp.
1 : 1
Boston River
Page 1 of 7

Ferro Carril

(Away)
31 Oct
Defensor Sp.
6 : 0
Ferro Carril
22 Oct
Ferro Carril
2 : 1
Melo Wanderers
09 Oct
Ferro Carril
2 : 1
Club Oriental De Futbol
07 Nov
Ferro Carril
0 : 1
CA Cerro
11 Oct
Ferro Carril
1 : 0
Bella Vista
Page 1 of 2

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Frontera Rivera 1
Club Nacional 5
Durazno 2
Uruguay Montevideo FC 1
Litoral Paysandu 1
Plaza Colonia 3
Piriapolis -
Penarol -
Paso de la Arena 0
Montevideo City 2
Rio Negro SJ -
Danubio -
18 de Julio FB -
CA Cerro -
Rincon -
Progreso -
Deportivo Colonia 1
Juventud 2
San Carlos 0
Albion 2
Villa Espanola -
Wanderers -
Atletico Juanico 0
Boston River 2
Paysandu Bella Vista 0
Defensor Sp. 3
Bristol 1
Racing Montevideo 2
Ferro Carril 2
Club Oriental De Futbol 1
Melo Wanderers -
Cerro Largo -
1/8-finals
Club Nacional 4
Durazno 0
Plaza Colonia 1
Piriapolis 0
Montevideo City 5
Rio Negro SJ 1
18 de Julio FB 3
Rincon 2
Juventud 0
Albion 2
Villa Espanola 0
Boston River 2
Defensor Sp. 1
Racing Montevideo 0
Ferro Carril 2
Melo Wanderers 1
Quarter-finals
Club Nacional 4
Plaza Colonia 0
Montevideo City 4
18 de Julio FB 0
Albion 0
Boston River 2
Defensor Sp. 6
Ferro Carril 0
Semi-finals
Club Nacional 4
Montevideo City 0
Boston River 0
Defensor Sp. 1
Final
Club Nacional 2
Defensor Sp. 3