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Defensor Sp. vs Montevideo City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
Defensor Sp. Logo

Defensor Sp.

1 - 3
FT
Montevideo City Logo

Montevideo City

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Agazzi L.
11' Event
Kagelmacher G.
25'
Rabunal M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Montevideo City in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montevideo City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Defensor Sp.
15%
Draws
57%
Montevideo City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montevideo City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Montevideo City have won more games recently than Defensor Sp..
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Montevideo City have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 12%
Montevideo City Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Defensor Sp. Montevideo City
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 16
Draws 10 3
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 0.86 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Montevideo City
1:3
Mar 3, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Montevideo City vs Defensor Sp.
1:0
Feb 26, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Defensor Sp.
1:0
Oct 24, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Montevideo City
0:1
Apr 27, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Defensor Sp.
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Defensor Sp. Compare

Top Goalscorer Agazzi L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Montevideo City Compare

Top Goalscorer Kagelmacher G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Obregon E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.57
Avg xA / game 0.96

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Defensor Sp. 30 / 100
Montevideo City 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Defensor Sp. Montevideo City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensor Sp.'s goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Montevideo City let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Montevideo City's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Defensor Sp. VS Montevideo City
1 Goals Scored 1.88
1.57 Goals Conceded 1.25
43% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 50%
43% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Defensor Sp.

(Home)
17 Oct
Boston River
1 : 0
Defensor Sp.
10 Oct
Defensor Sp.
2 : 3
CA Cerro
03 Oct
Albion
3 : 2
Defensor Sp.
30 Sept
Defensor Sp.
0 : 1
Plaza Colonia
27 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0
Danubio
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Montevideo City

(Away)
21 Oct
Montevideo City
2 : 0
Atletico-MG
18 Oct
Albion
2 : 1
Montevideo City
14 Oct
Atletico-MG
3 : 0
Montevideo City
09 Oct
Montevideo City
1 : 0
Danubio
05 Oct
Club Nacional
2 : 0
Montevideo City
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 11 7 3 1 19:8 24
2 Club Nacional 11 7 2 2 17:11 23
3 Montevideo City 11 7 1 3 21:12 22
4 Penarol 12 6 4 2 16:8 21
5 Maldonado 11 5 3 3 16:9 18
6 Juventud 12 4 6 2 12:8 18
7 CA Cerro 11 5 3 3 13:14 18
8 Progreso 11 5 1 5 12:13 16
9 Racing Montevideo 11 4 3 4 12:10 15
10 Boston River 11 4 3 4 14:13 15
11 Wanderers 11 4 3 4 13:17 15
12 Danubio 11 2 4 5 5:11 10
13 Albion 11 3 0 8 12:19 9
14 Defensor Sp. 11 2 2 7 11:20 8
15 Cerro Largo 11 0 6 5 7:14 6
16 Central Esp. 11 1 2 8 5:18 5
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)