Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Defensor Sp. vs Montevideo City

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Agazzi L.
11' Event
Kagelmacher G.
25'
Rabunal M.

AI Match Summary

Montevideo City in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montevideo City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

11%
Defensor Sp.
20%
Draws
69%
Montevideo City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Montevideo City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Montevideo City have won more games recently than Defensor Sp..
  • Model gives Montevideo City a 69% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Montevideo City have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 13%
Montevideo City Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Defensor Sp. Montevideo City
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 6 20
Draws 11 5
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 0.72 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Montevideo City
1:3
Mar 3, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Montevideo City vs Defensor Sp.
1:0
Feb 26, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Defensor Sp.
1:0
Oct 24, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Montevideo City
0:1
Apr 27, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Defensor Sp.
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Defensor Sp. Compare

Top Goalscorer Agazzi L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Montevideo City Compare

Top Goalscorer Kagelmacher G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Defensor Sp. 14 / 100
Montevideo City 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Defensor Sp. Montevideo City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montevideo City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montevideo City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 34 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Defensor Sp. stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Defensor Sp.'s goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Defensor Sp. VS Montevideo City
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Defensor Sp.

(Home)
29 Aug
Defensor Sp.
1 : 3
Montevideo City
25 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 0
Rentistas
22 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
16 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 4
Liverpool M.
09 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 1
Wanderers
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Montevideo City

(Away)
29 Aug
Defensor Sp.
1 : 3
Montevideo City
26 Aug
Penarol
1 : 0
Montevideo City
23 Aug
Montevideo City
5 : 1
Wanderers
20 Aug
Montevideo City
2 : 1
Tigre
15 Aug
Juventud
0 : 1
Montevideo City
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 3 3 0 0 9:0 9
2 Boston River 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
3 Wanderers 4 2 1 1 6:6 7
4 Montevideo City 2 2 0 0 6:1 6
5 CA Cerro 3 2 0 1 3:5 6
6 Racing Montevideo 3 1 2 0 4:2 5
7 Maldonado 3 1 2 0 4:2 5
8 Penarol 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
9 Juventud 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
10 Cerro Largo 3 0 3 0 3:3 3
11 Club Nacional 3 1 0 2 2:4 3
12 Central Esp. 4 1 0 3 2:6 3
13 Danubio 3 0 2 1 0:1 2
14 Defensor Sp. 3 0 1 2 1:6 1
15 Albion 3 0 0 3 3:6 0
16 Progreso 3 0 0 3 0:4 0
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)