Sport Picks
Defensor Sp. vs Penarol
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Togni G. In: Umpierrez L.
Out: Togni G.
46'
46'
Sub
Remedi E. In: Trindade J.
Out: Remedi E.
46'
46'
Sub
Batista F. In: Arezo M.
Out: Batista F.
AI Match Summary
Penarol in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penarol.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penarol
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Penarol lately — more wins on the board than Defensor Sp..
- Win probability leans Penarol's way, sitting at 60%.
- Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Penarol here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 16%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Defensor Sp. | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 5 | 13 |
| Draws | 12 | 8 |
| Losses | 11 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 0.79 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.18 | 0.96 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 24, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Penarol
0:2
May 4, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Defensor Sp.
1:1
Nov 2, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Defensor Sp.
2:1
Oct 16, 2025 Copa Uruguay
Defensor Sp. vs Penarol
0:2
Jun 7, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Defensor Sp.
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Defensor Sp. Compare
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41
Penarol Compare
Top Goalscorer Laxalt D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Defensor Sp. 19 / 100
Penarol 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Defensor Sp. Penarol
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Penarol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Defensor Sp. scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.
Penarol's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Defensor Sp. went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Defensor Sp. VS Penarol
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Defensor Sp.
(Home) 20 Sept
Club Nacional
3 : 2 Defensor Sp.
13 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0 Maldonado
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
06 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
29 Aug
Defensor Sp.
1 : 3 Montevideo City
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0 Maldonado
29 Aug
Defensor Sp.
1 : 3 Montevideo City
25 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 0 Rentistas
16 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 4 Liverpool M.
09 Aug
Defensor Sp.
0 : 1 Wanderers
Page 1 of 3
Penarol
(Away) 19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Penarol
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1 Albion
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4 Penarol
02 Sept
Atenas
2 : 2 Penarol
30 Aug
Penarol
0 : 1 Club Nacional
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2 Penarol
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4 Penarol
02 Sept
Atenas
2 : 2 Penarol
22 Aug
Maldonado
0 : 0 Penarol
12 Jul
Racing Montevideo
1 : 1 Penarol
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool M. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Esp. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | CA Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sp. | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | 5 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12:4 | 15 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:8 | 13 |
| 3 | Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | 12 |
| 4 | Montevideo City | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11:11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:8 | 6 |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6:11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5:9 | 4 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)
