Sport Picks
Dender vs OC Charleroi
Belgium
Belgian Cup 2025/2026 Dender Football Complex, Denderleeuw 
Match Events
9'
9'
Kvet R.
Penalty Missed
21'
21'
Corneillie V.
25'
25'
Kima Beyissa K.
AI Match Summary
Dender in this Belgian Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 4-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
56%
20%
24%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Dender
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
56%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Dender lately — more wins on the board than OC Charleroi.
- Win probability leans Dender's way, sitting at 90%.
- Dender have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Dender, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Dender Clean Sheet 68%
OC Charleroi Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Dender | OC Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 26 |
| Wins | 7 | 4 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 16 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 0.89 | 1.12 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.67 | 2.15 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 28, 2025 Belgian Cup
Dender vs OC Charleroi
4:2
Mar 19, 2022 National Division 1
Dender vs OC Charleroi
3:1
Nov 6, 2021 National Division 1
OC Charleroi vs Dender
2:2
Apr 17, 2021 National Division 1
Dender vs OC Charleroi
0:0
Nov 14, 2020 National Division 1
OC Charleroi vs Dender
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Dender Compare
Top Goalscorer Kadiri J. A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Nsimba B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
OC Charleroi Compare
Top Goalscorer Corneillie V.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Dender 95 / 100
OC Charleroi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Dender OC Charleroi
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Dender Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: OC Charleroi conceded in 92% of 26 recent games.
Attacking prowess: Dender scored in 63% of their last 27 outings.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Recent resilience: Dender stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Dender VS OC Charleroi
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Dender
(Home) 11 Sept
Gent U23
0 : 1 Dender
04 Sept
Dender
2 : 0 RFC Seraing
29 Aug
RFC Liege
1 : 2 Dender
22 Aug
Dender
2 : 0 Beerschot VA
14 Aug
Hasselt
1 : 0 Dender
Page 1 of 6
04 Sept
Dender
2 : 0 RFC Seraing
22 Aug
Dender
2 : 0 Beerschot VA
08 Aug
Dender
0 : 2 Knokke
23 May
Dender
0 : 0 Lommel SK
03 May
Dender
2 : 1 RAAL La Louviere
Page 1 of 3
OC Charleroi
(Away) 12 Sept
OC Charleroi
1 : 1 St. Gilloise 2
05 Sept
Renaissance Mons
3 : 0 OC Charleroi
30 Aug
Onhaye
0 : 2 OC Charleroi
26 Aug
OC Charleroi
0 : 5 St. Liege U23
01 Aug
Tienen
1 : 1 OC Charleroi
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Renaissance Mons
3 : 0 OC Charleroi
30 Aug
Onhaye
0 : 2 OC Charleroi
01 Aug
Tienen
1 : 1 OC Charleroi
28 Jun
Onhaye
1 : 5 OC Charleroi
17 Apr
Anderlecht U23
5 : 0 OC Charleroi
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
RFC Liege 0
Charleroi 1
KV Mechelen 2
Lierse SK 1
RFC Seraing 1
Leuven 3
Club Brugge 6
Eendracht Aalst 1
Dender 4
OC Charleroi 2
SK Beveren 1
St. Liege 2
Tubize-Braine 0
Royale Union SG 3
Belisia Bilzen 1
Waregem 4
Genk 3
RWDM Brussels 0
Ninove 0
Anderlecht 2
Cercle Brugge 1
Kortrijk 0
Gent 5
Patro Eisden 0
Antwerp 3
Eupen 1
Knokke 0
St. Truiden 1
Beerschot VA 3
Westerlo 2
Heist 1
RAAL La Louviere 2
1/8-finals
Charleroi 2
KV Mechelen 0
Leuven 1
Club Brugge 2
Dender 3
St. Liege 2
Royale Union SG 2
Waregem 1
Genk 1
Anderlecht 3
Cercle Brugge 1
Gent 3
Antwerp 4
St. Truiden 3
Beerschot VA 1
RAAL La Louviere 2
Quarter-finals
Charleroi 2
Club Brugge 0
Dender 0
Royale Union SG 2
Anderlecht 1
Gent 0
Antwerp 2
RAAL La Louviere 1
Semi-finals
Charleroi 1
Royale Union SG 4
Anderlecht 4
Antwerp 1
Final
Royale Union SG 3
Anderlecht 1
