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Dep. Cali vs Atl. Nacional - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Colombia Colombia

Copa Colombia Estadio Deportivo Cali, Palmira
Thu, Aug 13, 2026
VS
01:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 3-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This one's hard to separate. Dep. Cali have averaged 1.45 scored and 0.79 conceded recently, against Atl. Nacional's 1.83 scored and 0.83 conceded. Past meetings favor Atl. Nacional slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 8, 2026, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.69, favoring Atl. Nacional. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Dep. Cali
30%
Draws
20%
Atl. Nacional
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Dep. Cali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Atl. Nacional lately — more wins on the board than Dep. Cali.
  • Model gives Dep. Cali a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Atl. Nacional arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Dep. Cali, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Dep. Cali Clean Sheet 13%
Atl. Nacional Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dep. Cali Atl. Nacional
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 20
Draws 7 4
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 1.45 1.83
Goals Conceded 0.79 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2026 Copa Colombia
Atl. Nacional vs Dep. Cali
3:0
Aug 27, 2026 Primera A
Atl. Nacional vs Dep. Cali
2:1
Aug 13, 2026 Copa Colombia
Dep. Cali vs Atl. Nacional
0:0
Feb 15, 2026 Primera A
Dep. Cali vs Atl. Nacional
1:0
Oct 15, 2025 Primera A
Atl. Nacional vs Dep. Cali
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Cali 84 / 100
Atl. Nacional 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dep. Cali Atl. Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dep. Cali Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dep. Cali's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Dep. Cali remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Atl. Nacional conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Dep. Cali VS Atl. Nacional
1.38 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Dep. Cali

(Home)
03 Oct
Dep. Cali
3 : 1
Alianza
28 Sept
Dep. Cali
2 : 0
Aguilas Doradas
23 Sept
Santa Fe
0 : 1
Dep. Cali
19 Sept
Dep. Cali
3 : 0
Cucuta
13 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 2
Dep. Cali
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Atl. Nacional

(Away)
08 Oct
Atl. Nacional
0 : 0
Deportes Tolima
01 Oct
Atl. Nacional
3 : 1
Junior
26 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1
Chapecoense-SC
25 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1
Millonarios
21 Sept
Llaneros
2 : 0
Atl. Nacional
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Inter Bogotá 2
Real Cundinamarca 1
Quindio 1
Llaneros 2
Barranquilla 2
Millonarios 1
America De Cali 4
Dep. Pereira 1
Atl. Nacional 3
Dep. Cali 0
Dep. Pasto 1
Ind. Medellin 4
Once Caldas 1
Alianza 0
Santa Fe -
Fortaleza C.E.I.F. -
Quarter-finals
Inter Bogotá -
Llaneros -
Barranquilla -
America De Cali -
Atl. Nacional -
Ind. Medellin -
Once Caldas -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -