Sport Picks

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Dep. Cuenca vs Emelec

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar, Cuenca
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Griffith V.
35' Event
Diaz M.
Assist: Mancinelli L.
45'
Herrera O.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Dep. Cuenca and Emelec finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dep. Cuenca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Dep. Cuenca
30%
Draws
34%
Emelec
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Dep. Cuenca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Emelec haven't matched Dep. Cuenca's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Dep. Cuenca a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Dep. Cuenca Clean Sheet 20%
Emelec Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dep. Cuenca Emelec
Matches Played 34 31
Wins 13 11
Draws 8 8
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 0.38 1
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2026 Liga Pro
Dep. Cuenca vs Emelec
2:1
Apr 5, 2026 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Dep. Cuenca
0:2
Dec 20, 2025 Liga Pro
Dep. Cuenca vs Emelec
5:1
Oct 4, 2025 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Dep. Cuenca
3:1
Aug 11, 2025 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Dep. Cuenca
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dep. Cuenca Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Emelec Compare

Top Goalscorer Guerrico I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Cuenca 36 / 100
Emelec 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dep. Cuenca Emelec

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Dep. Cuenca scored in 65% of their last 34 games.

Emelec's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Dep. Cuenca stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dep. Cuenca VS Emelec
0.38 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Dep. Cuenca

(Home)
28 Jul
Dep. Cuenca
2 : 1
Emelec
22 Jul
Macara
3 : 0
Dep. Cuenca
18 Jul
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 2
U. Catolica
15 Jul
Leones del Norte
1 : 1
Dep. Cuenca
12 Jul
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Aucas
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Emelec

(Away)
28 Jul
Dep. Cuenca
2 : 1
Emelec
24 Jul
Emelec
1 : 1
Mushuc Runa
20 Jul
Independiente del Valle
6 : 1
Emelec
17 Jul
Orense
0 : 2
Emelec
12 Jul
Emelec
0 : 0
Barcelona SC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Independiente del Valle22181355:2255
2U. Catolica22106633:1936
3Macara22105728:2235
4Aucas22105724:2535
5Barcelona SC2297623:1734
6LDU Quito2295821:1732
7Leones del Norte2287723:2131
8Dep. Cuenca2294921:2731
9Guayaquil City2277819:2328
10Emelec2277819:2628
11Libertad2276921:2627
12Tecnico U.22821220:2426
13Orense22751027:3226
14Mushuc Runa2267927:3325
15Delfin22651113:2123
16Manta2235148:2714
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)