Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dep. Cuenca vs Emelec

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar, Cuenca
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Griffith V.
35' Event
Diaz M.
Assist: Mancinelli L.
45'
Herrera O.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Dep. Cuenca and Emelec finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dep. Cuenca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Dep. Cuenca
30%
Draws
41%
Emelec
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Emelec

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Dep. Cuenca haven't matched Emelec's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Dep. Cuenca a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Dep. Cuenca Clean Sheet 20%
Emelec Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dep. Cuenca Emelec
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 8 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.74 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2026 Liga Pro
Dep. Cuenca vs Emelec
2:1
Apr 5, 2026 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Dep. Cuenca
0:2
Dec 20, 2025 Liga Pro
Dep. Cuenca vs Emelec
5:1
Oct 4, 2025 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Dep. Cuenca
3:1
Aug 11, 2025 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Dep. Cuenca
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dep. Cuenca Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Emelec Compare

Top Goalscorer Guerrico I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Cuenca 42 / 100
Emelec 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dep. Cuenca Emelec

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Emelec let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Dep. Cuenca stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Dep. Cuenca's goal record stands at 58% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Dep. Cuenca VS Emelec
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Dep. Cuenca

(Home)
20 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
1 : 1
Mushuc Runa
13 Sept
LDU Quito
1 : 1
Dep. Cuenca
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
02 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
1 : 0
Guayaquil City
29 Aug
Tecnico U.
3 : 1
Dep. Cuenca
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Emelec

(Away)
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Macara
1 : 0
Emelec
08 Sept
Emelec
1 : 0
Manta
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
30 Aug
Emelec
2 : 1
Leones del Norte
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)