Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dep. Merlo vs Ituzaingo

Argentina Argentina

Primera B Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Fanti J.
44' Event
Liporace I.
46'
Sub
Benitez F. In: Sandoval I.
Out: Benitez F.

AI Match Summary

Dep. Merlo in this Primera B matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Dep. Merlo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Dep. Merlo
39%
Draws
31%
Ituzaingo
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Dep. Merlo lately — more wins on the board than Ituzaingo.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Dep. Merlo Clean Sheet 68%
Ituzaingo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dep. Merlo Ituzaingo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 2
Draws 10 8
Losses 9 19
Goals Scored 1.25 1
Goals Conceded 2.25 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Ituzaingo
3:2
Jul 1, 2023 Primera B
Ituzaingo vs Dep. Merlo
0:1
Mar 5, 2023 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Ituzaingo
0:0
Jul 26, 2022 Primera B
Ituzaingo vs Dep. Merlo
0:1
Mar 26, 2022 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Ituzaingo
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dep. Merlo Compare

Top Goalscorer Aguirre D. E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Aguerre F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Ituzaingo Compare

Top Goalscorer Liporace I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Miranda A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Merlo 41 / 100
Ituzaingo 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dep. Merlo Ituzaingo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dep. Merlo scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Ituzaingo has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Dep. Merlo stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dep. Merlo VS Ituzaingo
1.25 Goals Scored 1
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal Sarandi26148437:1950
2Excursionistas26147537:1749
3Talleres Remedios Escalada26147529:1349
4Villa Dalmine26139430:1448
5Deportivo Camioneros26138531:1747
6Sportivo Italiano26128627:2144
7Comunicaciones26108830:2638
8Laferrere26108829:3038
9Real Pilar26107929:2937
10Deportivo Armenio26107930:3137
11Dep. Merlo2699831:3836
12San Martin Burzaco26811726:2335
13Argentino de Merlo2698926:2435
14Dock Sud26710926:2431
15Argentino de Quilmes26710925:2831
16CSD Liniers26691117:2627
17Flandria26751420:3226
18Defensores Unidos265101120:2925
19UAI Urquiza26315812:2224
20Brown Adrogue26591216:2924
21Villa San Carlos264101224:3322
22Ituzaingo26171818:4510