Sport Picks
Dep. Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Argentina
Primera B Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium, Buenos Aires 
Match Events
7'
7'
Guzman M.
15'
15'
Guzman M.
20'
20'
Molina F.
AI Match Summary
The Primera B game between Dep. Merlo and Sportivo Italiano finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sportivo Italiano.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sportivo Italiano
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Sportivo Italiano come out ahead of Dep. Merlo on wins alone.
- 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Primera B form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Sportivo Italiano here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Dep. Merlo Clean Sheet 24%
Sportivo Italiano Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Dep. Merlo | Sportivo Italiano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 7 | 13 |
| Draws | 11 | 8 |
| Losses | 11 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 0.86 | 1.18 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 0.68 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.56 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano
0:4
Mar 29, 2026 Primera B
Sportivo Italiano vs Dep. Merlo
2:1
Sep 20, 2025 Primera B
Sportivo Italiano vs Dep. Merlo
1:0
May 3, 2025 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano
1:2
Jul 20, 2024 Primera B
Dep. Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Dep. Merlo Compare
Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28
Sportivo Italiano Compare
Top Goalscorer Guzman M.
3 Goals Assists Leader Molina F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Dep. Merlo 37 / 100
Sportivo Italiano 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Dep. Merlo Sportivo Italiano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sportivo Italiano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Dep. Merlo has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Dep. Merlo's goal record stands at 55% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Sportivo Italiano let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.
Scoring Trends
Dep. Merlo VS Sportivo Italiano
0.38 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
25% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Dep. Merlo
(Home) 10 Oct
Laferrere
1 : 1 Dep. Merlo
05 Oct
Dep. Merlo
0 : 0 Brown Adrogue
26 Sept
Deportivo Armenio
1 : 0 Dep. Merlo
20 Sept
Dep. Merlo
2 : 1 Flandria
13 Sept
Argentino de Quilmes
1 : 0 Dep. Merlo
Page 1 of 6
05 Oct
Dep. Merlo
0 : 0 Brown Adrogue
20 Sept
Dep. Merlo
2 : 1 Flandria
05 Sept
Dep. Merlo
0 : 0 Defensores Unidos
26 Aug
Dep. Merlo
1 : 2 Dock Sud
08 Aug
Dep. Merlo
0 : 4 Sportivo Italiano
Page 1 of 3
Sportivo Italiano
(Away) 04 Oct
Sportivo Italiano
2 : 0 Talleres Remedios Escalada
26 Sept
Laferrere
1 : 2 Sportivo Italiano
19 Sept
Sportivo Italiano
0 : 0 Brown Adrogue
12 Sept
Deportivo Armenio
1 : 0 Sportivo Italiano
05 Sept
Sportivo Italiano
3 : 1 Flandria
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Laferrere
1 : 2 Sportivo Italiano
12 Sept
Deportivo Armenio
1 : 0 Sportivo Italiano
29 Aug
Argentino de Quilmes
0 : 2 Sportivo Italiano
21 Aug
Comunicaciones
1 : 0 Sportivo Italiano
08 Aug
Dep. Merlo
0 : 4 Sportivo Italiano
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 39 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 63:30 | 77 |
| 2 | Arsenal Sarandi | 39 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 53:26 | 72 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios Escalada | 39 | 19 | 11 | 9 | 41:24 | 68 |
| 4 | Sportivo Italiano | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 45:28 | 65 |
| 5 | Villa Dalmine | 39 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 39:24 | 65 |
| 6 | Deportivo Camioneros | 39 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 44:30 | 64 |
| 7 | Deportivo Armenio | 39 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 42:38 | 61 |
| 8 | Real Pilar | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 42:38 | 61 |
| 9 | Comunicaciones | 39 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 39:34 | 56 |
| 10 | Laferrere | 39 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 47:51 | 52 |
| 11 | San Martin Burzaco | 39 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 40:44 | 50 |
| 12 | Dock Sud | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 40:42 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 39 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 37:43 | 47 |
| 14 | Dep. Merlo | 39 | 10 | 15 | 14 | 37:52 | 45 |
| 15 | Argentino de Merlo | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 33:39 | 44 |
| 16 | Argentino de Quilmes | 39 | 9 | 17 | 13 | 32:39 | 44 |
| 17 | CSD Liniers | 39 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 32:40 | 44 |
| 18 | Flandria | 39 | 11 | 9 | 19 | 35:48 | 42 |
| 19 | Defensores Unidos | 39 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 33:40 | 41 |
| 20 | Brown Adrogue | 38 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 24:37 | 39 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 38 | 5 | 20 | 13 | 21:35 | 35 |
| 22 | Ituzaingo | 39 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 27:64 | 16 |
Promotion - Primera Nacional 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Primera C 2027 (Apertura)
