Sport Picks

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Dep. Quito vs EL Nacional

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Ordonez J.
36' Event
Branda V.
60' Event
Cifuentes J.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between Dep. Quito and EL Nacional finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward EL Nacional.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Dep. Quito
22%
Draws
18%
EL Nacional
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Dep. Quito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Dep. Quito haven't matched EL Nacional's recent run of results.
  • Dep. Quito are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Dep. Quito Clean Sheet 20%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dep. Quito EL Nacional
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 4 5
Draws 3 5
Losses 23 19
Goals Scored 0 1.38
Goals Conceded 1 1.5
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 23, 2025 Club Friendly
Dep. Quito vs EL Nacional
1:2
Dec 6, 2015 Liga Pro
EL Nacional vs Dep. Quito
1:2
Jul 25, 2015 Liga Pro
Dep. Quito vs EL Nacional
1:0
Apr 23, 2015 Liga Pro
Dep. Quito vs EL Nacional
0:1
Mar 26, 2015 Liga Pro
EL Nacional vs Dep. Quito
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dep. Quito Compare

Top Goalscorer Ordonez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

EL Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Branda V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cifuentes J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dep. Quito 58 / 100
EL Nacional 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dep. Quito EL Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick QUI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EL Nacional has conceded goals in 93% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

EL Nacional's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Dep. Quito's goal record stands at 40% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Dep. Quito VS EL Nacional
0 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Dep. Quito

(Home)
23 Apr
Dep. Quito
0 : 1
Gualaceo
23 Mar
Dep. Quito
0 : 0
LDU Quito
07 Feb
Dep. Quito
3 : 2
Barcelona SC
23 Jan
Dep. Quito
1 : 2
EL Nacional
25 Feb
Macara
1 : 0
Dep. Quito
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EL Nacional

(Away)
15 Jul
Vinotinto
2 : 1
EL Nacional
08 Jul
EL Nacional
0 : 1
Cumbaya
02 Jul
Atletico FC
3 : 0
EL Nacional
11 Jun
EL Nacional
0 : 0
Dep. Santo Domingo
07 Jun
CD Cuenca Juniors
4 : 1
EL Nacional
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