Sport Picks
Deportes Tolima vs Ind. Medellin - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Colombia
Primera A Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibagué 
Match Events
1'
1'
Catano D.
16'
16'
Montano J.
Assist: Gonzalez Y.
34'
34'
Sub
Catano D. In: Cordoba J.
Out: Catano D.
AI Match Summary
The Primera A game between Deportes Tolima and Ind. Medellin finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ind. Medellin.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
35%
36%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ind. Medellin
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
29%
/ Low Confidence
- Ind. Medellin carry the better recent record into this one.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Ind. Medellin here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Deportes Tolima Clean Sheet 68%
Ind. Medellin Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Deportes Tolima | Ind. Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 27 |
| Wins | 11 | 14 |
| Draws | 7 | 5 |
| Losses | 11 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.14 | 1.44 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 4, 2026 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Ind. Medellin
2:3
Jan 28, 2026 Primera A
Ind. Medellin vs Deportes Tolima
2:2
Sep 27, 2025 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Ind. Medellin
2:3
Jun 15, 2025 Primera A
Ind. Medellin vs Deportes Tolima
2:1
Jun 4, 2025 Primera A
Deportes Tolima vs Ind. Medellin
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Deportes Tolima Compare
Top Goalscorer Hernandez J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Ind. Medellin Compare
Top Goalscorer Catano D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Montano J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Deportes Tolima 41 / 100
Ind. Medellin 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Deportes Tolima Ind. Medellin
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Deportes Tolima Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: Deportes Tolima scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.
Defensive concern: Ind. Medellin conceded in 74% of 27 recent games.
Deportes Tolima went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Deportes Tolima VS Ind. Medellin
0.88 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Deportes Tolima
(Home) 08 Oct
Atl. Nacional
0 : 0 Deportes Tolima
03 Oct
Deportes Tolima
0 : 0 Chico
27 Sept
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
2 : 2 Deportes Tolima
20 Sept
Deportes Tolima
1 : 1 America De Cali
16 Sept
Once Caldas
1 : 0 Deportes Tolima
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Deportes Tolima
0 : 0 Chico
20 Sept
Deportes Tolima
1 : 1 America De Cali
01 Sept
Deportes Tolima
2 : 1 Cucuta
22 Aug
Deportes Tolima
0 : 0 Bucaramanga
19 Aug
Deportes Tolima
0 : 1 Independiente del Valle
Page 1 of 3
Ind. Medellin
(Away) 06 Oct
Ind. Medellin
0 : 1 Santa Fe
30 Sept
Ind. Medellin
2 : 2 Millonarios
27 Sept
Junior
2 : 0 Ind. Medellin
22 Sept
Ind. Medellin
2 : 1 Jaguares de Cordoba
18 Sept
Bucaramanga
2 : 2 Ind. Medellin
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Junior
2 : 0 Ind. Medellin
18 Sept
Bucaramanga
2 : 2 Ind. Medellin
12 Sept
Chico
2 : 1 Ind. Medellin
10 Sept
Dep. Pasto
1 : 4 Ind. Medellin
04 Sept
Dep. Pereira
0 : 3 Ind. Medellin
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America De Cali | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24:7 | 27 |
| 2 | Dep. Cali | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20:9 | 24 |
| 3 | Atl. Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21:10 | 23 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 20:10 | 23 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19:12 | 22 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19:12 | 22 |
| 7 | Ind. Medellin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19:16 | 20 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 15:13 | 20 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 10 | Llaneros | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15:16 | 14 |
| 11 | Aguilas Doradas | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14:15 | 14 |
| 12 | Once Caldas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15:16 | 13 |
| 13 | Inter Bogotá | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 14:18 | 13 |
| 14 | Chico | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | 12 |
| 15 | Fortaleza C.E.I.F. | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14:19 | 11 |
| 16 | Alianza | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12:24 | 11 |
| 17 | Junior | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16:20 | 9 |
| 18 | Dep. Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9:18 | 9 |
| 19 | Dep. Pereira | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7:17 | 8 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11:20 | 7 |
Promotion - Primera A (Clausura - Quadrangular)
