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Deportiva Venados vs Tritones Vallarta

Mexico Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Deportiva Venados play Tritones Vallarta in the Liga Premier Serie A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Deportiva Venados averaged 2.39 goals scored and 1 conceded. Tritones Vallarta averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Deportiva Venados won 1, Tritones Vallarta won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 25, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Deportiva Venados and 0.76 for Tritones Vallarta. This points to a Deportiva Venados double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Deportiva Venados
16%
Draws
34%
Tritones Vallarta
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Deportiva Venados

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Deportiva Venados picked up more points recently compared to Tritones Vallarta.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 0.76 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Deportiva Venados Clean Sheet 27%
Tritones Vallarta Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Deportiva Venados Tritones Vallarta
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 20 16
Draws 7 3
Losses 4 12
Goals Scored 2.39 1.23
Goals Conceded 1 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Deportiva Venados vs Tritones Vallarta
1:0
Apr 22, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Tritones Vallarta vs Deportiva Venados
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Deportiva Venados Compare

Top Goalscorer Micolta S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Tritones Vallarta Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportiva Venados 50 / 100
Tritones Vallarta 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Deportiva Venados Tritones Vallarta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Deportiva Venados or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19%
2.38
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Deportiva Venados attacking → ← attacking Tritones Vallarta

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Deportiva Venados scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Tritones Vallarta let in goals in 55% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Deportiva Venados went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Tritones Vallarta lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

67 Points in last 5 51
2.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50