Sport Picks

Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026

Lealtad

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Deportivo Fabril play Lealtad in the Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026. Deportivo Fabril are favorites here. Recently, Deportivo Fabril averaged 1.63 goals scored and 0.63 conceded. Lealtad averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. In past meetings, Deportivo Fabril won 1, Lealtad won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 22, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.19 for Deportivo Fabril and 0.88 for Lealtad. This points to a Deportivo Fabril double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%

Deportivo Fabril

23%

Draws

21%

Lealtad

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Deportivo Fabril

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence

Deportivo Fabril picked up more points recently compared to Lealtad.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.19 vs 0.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Deportivo Fabril Clean Sheet 25%

Lealtad Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 57%

Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Deportivo Fabril	Lealtad
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	16	7
Draws	9	5
Losses	5	18
Goals Scored	1.63	0.93
Goals Conceded	0.63	1.6
Expected Goals (xG)	2.25	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.63	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1

Deportivo Fabril vs Lealtad

Possession: 49% - 60% Cards: 1 - 0

3:1

Oct 19, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 1

Lealtad vs Deportivo Fabril

Possession: 42% - 47% Cards: 2 - 0

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Deportivo Fabril Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigues D.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Mane A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.73

Avg xA / game 1.13

Lealtad Compare

Top Goalscorer Estrada I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportivo Fabril 55 / 100

Lealtad 21 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Deportivo Fabril Lealtad

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Deportivo Fabril Win (1)

Secondary Pick Deportivo Fabril & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +16.5%

2.08

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Deportivo Fabril attacking → ← attacking Lealtad

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Deportivo Fabril scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Lealtad let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Deportivo Fabril went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Lealtad lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

57 Points in last 5 26

2.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Fabril	34	20	9	5	59:22	69
2	Real Oviedo B	34	16	10	8	50:35	58
3	Numancia	34	15	11	8	46:31	56
4	UD Ourense	34	15	10	9	40:34	55
5	Coruxo FC	34	15	7	12	46:37	52
6	Gimnastica Segoviana	34	14	9	11	37:36	51
7	Real Avila	34	14	8	12	48:52	50
8	Salamanca CF UDS	34	14	8	12	43:36	50
9	Rayo Cantabria	34	11	15	8	63:50	48
10	Bergantinos	34	13	9	12	44:37	48
11	Atletico Astorga	34	12	9	13	41:43	45
12	Marino De Luanco	34	11	12	11	31:26	45
13	Valladolid Promesas	34	12	9	13	59:58	45
14	Langreo	34	11	10	13	35:41	43
15	Sarriana	34	11	7	16	42:42	40
16	Burgos CF B	34	8	12	14	38:55	36
17	Lealtad	34	7	7	20	31:54	28
18	UD Samano	34	3	6	25	23:87	15