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Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cajamarca

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Deportivo Garcilaso play Cajamarca in the Liga 1. It looks like a close match. Recently, Deportivo Garcilaso averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Cajamarca averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. In past meetings, Deportivo Garcilaso won 2, Cajamarca won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 17, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.94 for Cajamarca. This points to a Deportivo Garcilaso double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Deportivo Garcilaso
26%
Draws
35%
Cajamarca
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Deportivo Garcilaso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Deportivo Garcilaso picked up more points recently compared to Cajamarca.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Deportivo Garcilaso Clean Sheet 24%
Cajamarca Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Deportivo Garcilaso Cajamarca
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 9
Draws 7 9
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.14 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Liga 1
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cajamarca
2:0
Sep 26, 2025 Liga 1
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cajamarca
0:0
May 3, 2025 Liga 1
Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso
2:1
Jul 13, 2024 Liga 1
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cajamarca
1:0
Jan 26, 2024 Liga 1
Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Deportivo Garcilaso Compare

Top Goalscorer Olivares C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Arancibia F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Cajamarca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Deportivo Garcilaso 40 / 100
Cajamarca 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Deportivo Garcilaso Cajamarca

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Deportivo Garcilaso attacking → ← attacking Cajamarca

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Deportivo Garcilaso scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Cajamarca let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Deportivo Garcilaso went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Cajamarca lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 36
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1A. Lima17124130:840
2Los Chankas17104325:2134
3Cienciano17103434:2233
4Universitario de Deportes1785424:1529
5FBC Melgar1784529:2028
6Cusco1783621:2427
7Deportivo Garcilaso1775521:1826
8Alianza Atl.1756620:1821
9Comerciantes Unidos1756618:2021
10AD Tarma1755722:2120
11Sport Boys1755715:1920
12Sporting Cristal1754828:3019
13Cajamarca1746721:2618
14Moquegua1753917:2418
15FC Cajamarca1745823:2817
16Atletico Grau1744912:1816
17Sport Huancayo1744921:3116
18Juan Pablo II1744922:4016