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Derby U18 vs Manchester City U18 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Premier League U18
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Derby U18 host Manchester City U18 in the Premier League U18. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Derby U18 at 1.89 goals for, 2.43 against; Manchester City U18 at 3.63 for, 1.49 against. Head-to-head, Derby U18 have won 1 to Manchester City U18's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on May 2, 2026, ending 5:3. Model xG sits at 2.31 vs 2.75, favoring Manchester City U18. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Derby U18
15%
Draws
58%
Manchester City U18
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Manchester City U18

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Manchester City U18 have won more games recently than Derby U18.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Manchester City U18 taking it.
  • Regular Premier League U18 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).
  • Manchester City U18 have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.4%
Derby U18 Clean Sheet 10%
Manchester City U18 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derby U18 Manchester City U18
Matches Played 28 35
Wins 11 27
Draws 3 3
Losses 14 5
Goals Scored 1.89 3.63
Goals Conceded 2.43 1.49
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Premier League U18
Manchester City U18 vs Derby U18
5:3
Feb 28, 2026 Premier League U18
Derby U18 vs Manchester City U18
3:1
Apr 26, 2025 Premier League U18
Manchester City U18 vs Derby U18
4:3
Nov 9, 2024 Premier League U18
Derby U18 vs Manchester City U18
3:5
Jan 27, 2024 Premier League U18
Manchester City U18 vs Derby U18
5:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derby U18 10 / 100
Manchester City U18 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derby U18 Manchester City U18

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Manchester City U18 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derby U18 found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

H2H data points to 6.60 goals as a typical output.

Manchester City U18 let in goals in 69% of their last 35 matches.

Solid form: Derby U18 remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Derby U18 VS Manchester City U18
2.13 Goals Scored 2.88
2.63 Goals Conceded 2.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Derby U18

(Home)
19 Sept
Derby U18
3 : 3
Liverpool U18
12 Sept
Stoke City U18
0 : 2
Derby U18
05 Sept
Derby U18
0 : 2
Nottingham U18
29 Aug
Middlesbrough U18
1 : 3
Derby U18
22 Aug
Derby U18
1 : 4
Burnley U18
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Manchester City U18

(Away)
19 Sept
Everton U18
0 : 6
Manchester City U18
12 Sept
Manchester City U18
4 : 1
Sunderland U18
05 Sept
Stoke City U18
5 : 8
Manchester City U18
29 Aug
Manchester City U18
5 : 1
Leeds U18
22 Aug
Manchester United U18
0 : 1
Manchester City U18
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manchester City U18 6 6 0 0 26:8 18
2 Newcastle Utd U18 6 5 0 1 19:7 15
3 Manchester United U18 5 4 0 1 16:1 12
4 Nottingham U18 5 3 1 1 15:4 10
5 Liverpool U18 5 2 2 1 14:11 8
6 Burnley U18 6 2 2 2 13:11 8
7 Middlesbrough U18 6 2 2 2 11:12 8
8 Derby U18 6 2 1 3 10:13 7
9 Everton U18 5 2 0 3 11:12 6
10 Leeds U18 5 2 0 3 8:16 6
11 Blackburn U18 5 2 0 3 5:20 6
12 Stoke City U18 6 1 1 4 11:18 4
13 Leicester U18 4 0 2 2 6:11 2
14 Sunderland U18 3 0 1 2 3:9 1
15 Wolves U18 5 0 0 5 3:18 0
Promotion - Premier League U18 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tottenham U18 6 5 1 0 33:9 16
2 Chelsea U18 7 5 0 2 28:10 15
3 Southampton U18 6 4 0 2 21:12 12
4 Fulham U18 6 3 3 0 23:15 12
5 Arsenal U18 6 3 1 2 10:6 10
6 West Ham U18 6 3 1 2 16:15 10
7 Brighton U18 6 3 1 2 15:17 10
8 Ipswich U18 6 3 0 3 15:15 9
9 Brentford U18 6 3 0 3 15:15 9
10 Aston Villa U18 6 2 2 2 15:13 8
11 West Brom U18 6 2 1 3 5:14 7
12 Norwich U18 6 2 0 4 13:22 6
13 Bournemouth U18 6 1 2 3 14:22 5
14 Crystal Palace U18 6 1 1 4 9:15 4
15 Reading U18 7 1 1 5 9:25 4
16 Birmingham U18 6 1 0 5 6:22 3
Promotion - Premier League U18 (Play Offs)