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Derby U21 vs Carlisle - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Derby U21 and Carlisle finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carlisle.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Derby U21
20%
Draws
40%
Carlisle
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Carlisle come out ahead of Derby U21 on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Derby U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Carlisle Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derby U21 Carlisle
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 14
Draws 8 7
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.79 2
Goals Conceded 2.32 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Club Friendly
Derby U21 vs Carlisle
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derby U21 34 / 100
Carlisle 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derby U21 Carlisle

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carlisle Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derby U21 found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Carlisle conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Derby U21 has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Derby U21 VS Carlisle
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Derby U21

(Home)
18 Sept
Burnley U21
4 : 1
Derby U21
11 Sept
Derby U21
1 : 3
Tottenham U21
08 Sept
Gateshead
1 : 3
Derby U21
31 Aug
Derby U21
4 : 4
West Brom U21
24 Aug
Reading U21
1 : 3
Derby U21
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Carlisle

(Away)
03 Oct
Aldershot
1 : 3
Carlisle
29 Sept
AFC Fylde
0 : 2
Carlisle
26 Sept
Carlisle
2 : 5
Woking
19 Sept
Eastleigh
1 : 0
Carlisle
15 Sept
Carlisle
1 : 1
Forest Green
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