Sport Picks

England

FA Cup Pride Park, Derby

Derby

1 - 3

Leeds

Our Tip

Match Events

18'

Fraulo O.

33'

Piroe J.

Penalty Missed

35'

Brereton Diaz B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Leeds in this FA Cup tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Derby

33%

Draws

27%

Leeds

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Derby

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to Derby lately — more wins on the board than Leeds.
Win probability leans Derby's way, sitting at 40%.
Derby have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Leeds, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
These two have met 5 times recently and Leeds have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%

Derby Clean Sheet 68%

Leeds Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Derby	Leeds
Matches Played	27	28
Wins	13	11
Draws	1	10
Losses	13	7
Goals Scored	1.25	1.5
Goals Conceded	1.38	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 FA Cup

Derby vs Leeds

1:3

Dec 29, 2024 Championship

Derby vs Leeds

0:1

Dec 7, 2024 Championship

Leeds vs Derby

2:0

Jul 19, 2020 Championship

Derby vs Leeds

1:3

Sep 21, 2019 Championship

Leeds vs Derby

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derby Compare

Top Goalscorer Brereton Diaz B.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Leeds Compare

Top Goalscorer Gnonto W.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Tanaka A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derby 50 / 100

Leeds 26 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Derby Leeds

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DER Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derby scored in 93% of their last 27 games.

Defensive concern: Leeds conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Derby remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Derby VS Leeds

1.25 Goals Scored 1.5

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38

75% Over 1.5 75%

63% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Derby

(Home)

28 Jul

Derby

1 : 2

Valencia

24 Jul

Freiburg

3 : 1

Derby

17 Jul

Alfreton

0 : 2

Derby

02 May

Derby

1 : 2

Sheffield Utd

25 Apr

QPR

2 : 3

Derby

Page 1 of 6

Leeds

(Away)

25 Jul

Wrexham

3 : 2

Leeds

24 May

West Ham

3 : 0

Leeds

17 May

Leeds

1 : 0

Brighton

11 May

Tottenham

1 : 1

Leeds

01 May

Leeds

3 : 1

Burnley

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Wrexham-

TBD-

Nottingham-

Ipswich-

TBD-

Blackpool1

Scunthorpe0

Reading2

Carlisle3

Hull City-

TBD-

Blackburn-

Charlton-

TBD-

Chelsea-

Port Vale5

Maldon & Tiptree1

Bromley1

Bristol Rovers2

Fleetwood Town2

Barnet1

Luton4

Forest Green3

Bristol City-

TBD-

Watford-

Colchester2

Milton Keynes Dons3

Oldham3

Northampton1

TBD-

Oxford Utd-

Everton-

TBD-

Sunderland-

Boreham Wood3

Crawley Town0

Newport3

Gillingham2

Brackley3

Notts County2

Burton6

St. Albans0

West Ham-

TBD-

QPR-

Slough Town2

Altrincham1

Macclesfield6

AFC Totton3

TBD-

Crystal Palace-

Sheffield Wed-

TBD-

Brentford-

Tranmere1

Stockport County3

Cambridge Utd3

Chester0

TBD-

Birmingham-

Derby-

TBD-

Leeds-

Norwich-

TBD-

AFC Wimbledon0

Gateshead2

Eastleigh0

Walsall3

Swansea-

TBD-

West Brom-

Tottenham-

TBD-

Aston Villa-

Newcastle Utd-

TBD-

Bournemouth-

Manchester City-

TBD-

Halifax0

Exeter2

Wycombe2

Plymouth0

Salford2

Lincoln City1

Tamworth0

Leyton Orient1

Rotherham1

Swindon2

Bolton2

Huddersfield1

Grimsby3

Ebbsfleet1

Wealdstone1

Southend0

Chelmsford4

Braintree1

Weston-super-Mare2

Aldershot1

Wolves-

TBD-

Sutton2

Telford1

South Shields1

Shrewsbury3

Liverpool-

TBD-

Peterborough1

Cardiff0

Barnsley3

York City2

Manchester United-

TBD-

Brighton-

Stoke City-

TBD-

Coventry-

Fulham-

TBD-

Middlesbrough-

Stevenage0

Chesterfield1

Crewe1

Doncaster2

TBD-

Southampton-

Cheltenham1

Bradford City0

Buxton2

Chatham1

TBD-

Leicester-

Burnley-

TBD-

Millwall-

Sheffield Utd-

TBD-

Gainsborough1

Accrington2

Mansfield3

Harrogate2

Portsmouth-

TBD-

Arsenal-

Preston-

TBD-

Wigan2

Hemel Hempstead1

Spennymoor0

Barrow2

1/64-finals

Wrexham-

TBD-

Nottingham-

Ipswich-

TBD-

Blackpool4

Carlisle1

Hull City-

TBD-

Blackburn-

Charlton-

TBD-

Chelsea-

Port Vale1

Bristol Rovers0

Fleetwood Town3

Luton2

Bristol City-

TBD-

Watford-

Milton Keynes Dons3

Oldham1

TBD-

Oxford Utd-

Everton-

TBD-

Sunderland-

Boreham Wood3

Newport0

Brackley1

Burton3

West Ham-

TBD-

QPR-

Slough Town1

Macclesfield3

TBD-

Crystal Palace-

Sheffield Wed-

TBD-

Brentford-

Stockport County0

Cambridge Utd1

TBD-

Birmingham-

Derby-

TBD-

Leeds-

Norwich-

TBD-

Gateshead0

Walsall2

Swansea-

TBD-

West Brom-

Tottenham-

TBD-

Aston Villa-

Newcastle Utd-

TBD-

Bournemouth-

Manchester City-

TBD-

Exeter4

Wycombe0

Salford4

Leyton Orient0

Swindon4

Bolton0

Grimsby4

Wealdstone0

Chelmsford0

Weston-super-Mare2

Wolves-

TBD-

Sutton1

Shrewsbury2

Liverpool-

TBD-

Peterborough0

Barnsley1

Manchester United-

TBD-

Brighton-

Stoke City-

TBD-

Coventry-

Fulham-

TBD-

Middlesbrough-

Chesterfield1

Doncaster2

TBD-

Southampton-

Cheltenham6

Buxton2

TBD-

Leicester-

Burnley-

TBD-

Millwall-

Sheffield Utd-

TBD-

Accrington2

Mansfield3

Portsmouth-

TBD-

Arsenal-

Preston-

TBD-

Wigan3

Barrow2

1/32-finals

Wrexham4

Nottingham3

Ipswich2

Blackpool1

Hull City1

Blackburn0

Charlton1

Chelsea5

Port Vale1

Fleetwood Town0

Bristol City5

Watford1

Milton Keynes Dons1

Oxford Utd2

Everton1

Sunderland2

Boreham Wood0

Burton5

West Ham2

QPR1

Macclesfield2

Crystal Palace1

Sheffield Wed0

Brentford2

Cambridge Utd2

Birmingham3

Derby1

Leeds3

Norwich5

Walsall1

Swansea2

West Brom3

Tottenham1

Aston Villa2

Newcastle Utd4

Bournemouth3

Manchester City10

Exeter1

Salford3

Swindon2

Grimsby3

Weston-super-Mare2

Wolves6

Shrewsbury1

Liverpool4

Barnsley1

Manchester United1

Brighton2

Stoke City1

Coventry0

Fulham3

Middlesbrough1

Doncaster2

Southampton3

Cheltenham0

Leicester2

Burnley5

Millwall1

Sheffield Utd3

Mansfield4

Portsmouth1

Arsenal4

Preston0

Wigan1

1/16-finals

Wrexham1

Ipswich0

Hull City0

Chelsea4

Port Vale1

Bristol City0

Oxford Utd0

Sunderland1

Burton0

West Ham1

Macclesfield0

Brentford1

Birmingham1

Leeds2

Norwich3

West Brom1

Aston Villa1

Newcastle Utd3

Manchester City2

Salford0

Grimsby0

Wolves1

Liverpool3

Brighton0

Stoke City1

Fulham2

Southampton2

Leicester1

Burnley1

Mansfield2

Arsenal4

Wigan0

1/8-finals

Wrexham2

Chelsea4

Port Vale1

Sunderland0

West Ham3

Brentford2

Leeds3

Norwich0

Newcastle Utd1

Manchester City3

Wolves1

Liverpool3

Fulham0

Southampton1

Mansfield1

Arsenal2

Quarter-finals

Chelsea7

Port Vale0

West Ham2

Leeds3

Manchester City4

Liverpool0

Southampton2

Arsenal1

Semi-finals

Chelsea1

Leeds0

Manchester City2

Southampton1

Final

Chelsea0

Manchester City1

Derby vs Leeds

England

Derby

Leeds

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

Derby Compare

Leeds Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Derby

Leeds

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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