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Derby vs Valencia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Valencia in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Valencia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Derby
15%
Draws
36%
Valencia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Derby

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Valencia have won more games recently than Derby.
  • Win probability leans Derby's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Derby Clean Sheet 20%
Valencia Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derby Valencia
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 3 4
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.29 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2026 Club Friendly
Derby vs Valencia
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derby 49 / 100
Valencia 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derby Valencia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Derby Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derby found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Valencia let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Valencia registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Derby VS Valencia
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Derby

(Home)
19 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1
Derby
12 Sept
Derby
1 : 2
Birmingham
09 Sept
Derby
0 : 1
West Brom
05 Sept
West Ham
3 : 0
Derby
01 Sept
Portsmouth
0 : 2
Derby
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Valencia

(Away)
20 Sept
Valencia
2 : 3
Real Sociedad
15 Sept
Alaves
0 : 1
Valencia
11 Sept
Sevilla
1 : 0
Valencia
06 Sept
Valencia
0 : 5
Barcelona
30 Aug
Dep. A Coruna
3 : 1
Valencia
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