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Derby vs Valencia

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Valencia in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Valencia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Derby
20%
Draws
51%
Valencia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Valencia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Valencia have won more games recently than Derby.
  • Win probability leans Derby's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Derby Clean Sheet 13%
Valencia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derby Valencia
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 13 15
Draws 2 5
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.48 1.56
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2026 Club Friendly
Derby vs Valencia
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derby 35 / 100
Valencia 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derby Valencia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derby found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).

Valencia let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Derby has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Derby VS Valencia
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Derby

(Home)
08 Aug
Derby
1 : 2
Lincoln City
04 Aug
Rotherham
1 : 1
Derby
01 Aug
Burton
1 : 0
Derby
31 Jul
Mansfield
1 : 3
Derby
28 Jul
Derby
1 : 2
Valencia
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Valencia

(Away)
08 Aug
Valencia
1 : 2
Newcastle Utd
01 Aug
Stoke City
1 : 1
Valencia
28 Jul
Derby
1 : 2
Valencia
25 Jul
Valencia
1 : 2
Castellon
22 Jul
Valencia
3 : 0
Eldense
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