Sport Picks
Derio vs Lagun Onak - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 4 
AI Match Summary
Derio host Lagun Onak in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4. This one's hard to separate. Derio have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.1 conceded recently, against Lagun Onak's 1.34 scored and 1.07 conceded. Head-to-head, Derio have won 2 to Lagun Onak's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on May 24, 2026, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.25, favoring Lagun Onak. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Derio average 1.4 goals a game right now, well clear of Lagun Onak's 1.34.
- Model gives Derio a 53% chance of winning this.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Derio | Lagun Onak |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 13 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 8 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.4 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Derio scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Derio went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Away concern: Lagun Onak has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Derio
(Home)Lagun Onak
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:8 | 16 |
| 2 | Leioa | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16:6 | 12 |
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8:3 | 12 |
| 4 | UD Aretxabaleta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 11 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad C | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 6 | Alaves C | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13:6 | 10 |
| 7 | Pasaia | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:10 | 10 |
| 8 | San Ignacio | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | 8 |
| 9 | Touring KE | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
| 10 | Sodupe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:9 | 8 |
| 11 | SCD Durango | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 12 | Beasain | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:8 | 7 |
| 13 | Lagun Onak | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | 7 |
| 14 | SD Erandio | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6:8 | 6 |
| 15 | Santurtzi | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3:7 | 6 |
| 16 | Eibar C | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | 5 |
| 17 | Real Union B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:12 | 5 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1:13 | 1 |
