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Match Events
AI Match Summary
Leioa in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Leioa average 1.41 goals a game right now, well clear of Derio's 1.38.
- Model gives Derio a 41% chance of winning this.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Leioa, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Derio | Leioa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 9 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.41 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 1.66 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.25 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Derio Compare
Leioa Compare
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Derio's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Leioa has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Recent resilience: Derio stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.
