Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Derry City vs Shelbourne

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Henry-Francis J.
Assist: Lundgren M.
10' Event
Rylah H.
Assist: McClean J.
31'
Sub
Bone S. In: Norris J.
Out: Bone S.

AI Match Summary

Shelbourne in this Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shelbourne.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Derry City
35%
Draws
15%
Shelbourne
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Derry City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Derry City have won more games recently than Shelbourne.
  • Win probability leans Derry City's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38.400000000000006%
Derry City Clean Sheet 68%
Shelbourne Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derry City Shelbourne
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 7
Draws 10 10
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.48 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Premier Division
Shelbourne vs Derry City
0:1
May 25, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Shelbourne
0:0
Apr 17, 2026 Premier Division
Shelbourne vs Derry City
1:2
Mar 13, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Shelbourne
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Premier Division
Derry City vs Shelbourne
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derry City Compare

Top Goalscorer Rylah H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Shelbourne Compare

Top Goalscorer Henry-Francis J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kelly D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derry City 50 / 100
Shelbourne 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derry City Shelbourne

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Derry City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shelbourne has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Derry City found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Derry City went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Derry City VS Shelbourne
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Derry City

(Home)
11 Sept
Shelbourne
0 : 1
Derry City
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2
Dundalk
30 Aug
Derry City
3 : 3
Shamrock Rovers
21 Aug
Bohemians
5 : 3
Derry City
14 Aug
UC Dublin
1 : 2
Derry City
Page 1 of 6

Shelbourne

(Away)
11 Sept
Shelbourne
0 : 1
Derry City
04 Sept
Shamrock Rovers
0 : 0
Shelbourne
28 Aug
Galway United
1 : 1
Shelbourne
13 Aug
Shelbourne
2 : 2
Ajax
09 Aug
Shelbourne
1 : 2
St. Patricks
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shamrock Rovers 30 16 8 6 46:29 56
2 St. Patricks 30 15 8 7 47:25 53
3 Bohemians 30 15 8 7 53:36 53
4 Dundalk 30 10 11 9 47:46 41
5 Derry City 30 8 13 9 42:40 37
6 Shelbourne 29 8 12 9 37:40 36
7 Galway United 29 8 10 11 38:45 34
8 Waterford 30 7 12 11 40:49 33
9 Drogheda 30 7 10 13 35:48 31
10 Sligo Rovers 30 5 8 17 23:50 23
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)