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Derry City W vs Lisburn Ladies W

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

Premiership Women 2025 The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Derry City W play Lisburn Ladies W in the Premiership Women 2025. Derry City W are favorites here. Recently, Derry City W averaged 1.43 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. Lisburn Ladies W averaged 0.7 goals scored and 3.13 conceded. In past meetings, Derry City W won 4, Lisburn Ladies W won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 22, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.25 for Derry City W and 1.38 for Lisburn Ladies W. This points to a Derry City W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Derry City W
15%
Draws
24%
Lisburn Ladies W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Derry City W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence
  • Derry City W picked up more points recently compared to Lisburn Ladies W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.25 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 68%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Derry City W Clean Sheet 17%
Lisburn Ladies W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Derry City W Lisburn Ladies W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 5
Draws 2 3
Losses 19 22
Goals Scored 1.43 0.7
Goals Conceded 2.5 3.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Premiership Women
Lisburn Ladies W vs Derry City W
0:1
Sep 26, 2025 Premiership Women
Derry City W vs Lisburn Ladies W
1:3
Jul 25, 2025 Premiership Women
Lisburn Ladies W vs Derry City W
0:2
Jun 6, 2025 Premiership Women
Derry City W vs Lisburn Ladies W
1:0
Oct 13, 2024 Premiership Women
Derry City W vs Lisburn Ladies W
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Derry City W Compare

Top Goalscorer McMonagle S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Lisburn Ladies W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Derry City W 58 / 100
Lisburn Ladies W 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Derry City W Lisburn Ladies W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Derry City W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Derry City W & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.3%
1.89
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.5%
1.61
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Derry City W attacking → ← attacking Lisburn Ladies W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derry City W scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Lisburn Ladies W let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Derry City W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Lisburn Ladies W lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 18
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Glentoran W14130157:1039
2Cliftonville W14121142:637
3Linfield W14101359:1931
4Lisburn Rangers W1470724:2621
5Crusaders W1460824:3718
6Derry City W14401017:3512
7Lisburn Ladies W1411125:444
8Larne W14111210:614