Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group D

Pistoiese

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Desenzano Calvina play Pistoiese in the Serie D - Group D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Desenzano Calvina averaged 1.74 goals scored and 0.58 conceded. Pistoiese averaged 1.72 goals scored and 0.63 conceded. In past meetings, Desenzano Calvina won 1, Pistoiese won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 26, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Desenzano Calvina and 1.38 for Pistoiese. This points to a Desenzano Calvina double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Desenzano Calvina

22%

Draws

36%

Pistoiese

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Desenzano Calvina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Desenzano Calvina picked up more points recently compared to Pistoiese.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 65%

Over 2.5 Goals 37%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%

Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 17%

Pistoiese Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Desenzano Calvina	Pistoiese
Matches Played	31	32
Wins	21	21
Draws	7	7
Losses	3	4
Goals Scored	1.74	1.72
Goals Conceded	0.58	0.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.38	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group D

Desenzano Calvina vs Pistoiese

Possession: 55% - 57% Cards: 4 - 4

1:1

Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group D

Pistoiese vs Desenzano Calvina

Possession: 44% - 56% Cards: 0 - 2

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Desenzano Calvina Compare

Top Goalscorer Barwuah E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Pistoiese Compare

Top Goalscorer Davide Pisani

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 2.16

Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Desenzano Calvina 41 / 100

Pistoiese 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Desenzano Calvina Pistoiese

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Desenzano Calvina or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23.5%

2.94

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +19.5%

3.23

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Desenzano Calvina attacking → ← attacking Pistoiese

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Desenzano Calvina scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Pistoiese let in goals in 47% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Desenzano Calvina went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Pistoiese lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

70 Points in last 5 70

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 2.38

0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Desenzano Calvina	34	23	8	3	60:21	77
2	Lentigione	34	22	7	5	51:23	73
3	Pistoiese	34	20	11	3	61:22	71
4	Piacenza	34	19	7	8	60:35	64
5	Pro Palazzolo	34	16	9	9	44:31	57
6	Pro Sesto	34	15	10	9	45:30	55
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	34	15	10	9	35:29	55
8	Rovato Vertovese	34	14	10	10	35:29	52
9	Sangiuliano City	34	14	8	12	41:45	47
10	SCD Progresso	34	10	9	15	38:42	39
11	Sant'Angelo	34	10	9	15	38:51	39
12	Correggese	34	9	12	13	35:36	39
13	Crema	34	9	11	14	35:47	38
14	Imolese	34	8	10	16	28:47	34
15	Sasso Marconi	34	8	7	19	33:49	31
16	Tropical Coriano	34	7	10	17	29:45	31
17	Trevigliese	34	5	8	21	31:62	23
18	Tuttocuoio	34	0	8	26	18:73	8