Sport Picks
Desenzano Calvina vs SCD Progresso Prediction & H2H Stats
Italy
Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 
Match Events
8'
8'
Gori M.
23'
23'
Calabrese A.
36'
36'
Brighenti A.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 game between Desenzano Calvina and SCD Progresso finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Desenzano Calvina.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
50%
20%
30%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Desenzano Calvina
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Desenzano Calvina carry the better recent record into this one.
- Desenzano Calvina are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 4 times recently and Desenzano Calvina have taken 3 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 60.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 68%
SCD Progresso Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Desenzano Calvina | SCD Progresso |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 31 |
| Wins | 17 | 10 |
| Draws | 10 | 6 |
| Losses | 5 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.66 | 1.39 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.46 | 0.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Desenzano Calvina vs SCD Progresso
3:1
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Desenzano Calvina
0:1
Feb 2, 2020 Serie D - Group D
Desenzano Calvina vs SCD Progresso
5:0
Sep 29, 2019 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Desenzano Calvina
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Desenzano Calvina Compare
Top Goalscorer Gori M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Gasperi M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.12
Avg xA / game 0.73
SCD Progresso Compare
Top Goalscorer Calabrese A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Desenzano Calvina 95 / 100
SCD Progresso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Desenzano Calvina SCD Progresso
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Desenzano Calvina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
SCD Progresso let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.
Desenzano Calvina's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 32 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.75 goals.
Solid form: Desenzano Calvina remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Desenzano Calvina VS SCD Progresso
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.17
38% Over 1.5 83%
13% Over 2.5 67%
0% Over 3.5 17%
Recent Form & Match History
Desenzano Calvina
(Home) 26 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 0 Juventus U23
21 Sept
Treviso
0 : 0 Desenzano Calvina
17 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 3 Lecco
13 Sept
Arzignano
1 : 2 Desenzano Calvina
06 Sept
Union Brescia
1 : 0 Desenzano Calvina
Page 1 of 7
26 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 0 Juventus U23
17 Sept
Desenzano Calvina
1 : 3 Lecco
31 Aug
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 0 Trento
09 Aug
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 0 Giana Erminio
02 Aug
Desenzano Calvina
2 : 1 Parma U20
Page 1 of 4
SCD Progresso
(Away) 27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0 SCD Progresso
20 Sept
SCD Progresso
0 : 3 Seravezza Pozzi
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0 SCD Progresso
12 Sept
SCD Progresso
2 : 1 Scandicci
06 Sept
Tau
2 : 1 SCD Progresso
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0 SCD Progresso
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0 SCD Progresso
06 Sept
Tau
2 : 1 SCD Progresso
26 Apr
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1 SCD Progresso
19 Apr
Lentigione
1 : 2 SCD Progresso
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Desenzano Calvina | 34 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 60:21 | 77 |
| 2 | Lentigione | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 51:23 | 73 |
| 3 | Pistoiese | 34 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 61:22 | 71 |
| 4 | Piacenza | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 60:35 | 64 |
| 5 | Pro Palazzolo | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 44:31 | 57 |
| 6 | Pro Sesto | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 45:30 | 55 |
| 7 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 35:29 | 55 |
| 8 | Rovato Vertovese | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 35:29 | 52 |
| 9 | Sangiuliano City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 41:45 | 47 |
| 10 | SCD Progresso | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38:42 | 39 |
| 11 | Sant'Angelo | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38:51 | 39 |
| 12 | Correggese | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 35:36 | 39 |
| 13 | Crema | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35:47 | 38 |
| 14 | Imolese | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 28:47 | 34 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:49 | 31 |
| 16 | Tropical Coriano | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 29:45 | 31 |
| 17 | Trevigliese | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31:62 | 23 |
| 18 | Tuttocuoio | 34 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 18:73 | 8 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D 2025/2026 (Play Out)
