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Desportiva Aracaju vs Dorense

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano
Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Keyllo
48' Event
Jussimar
(Penalty)
63' Event
dos Santos D.

AI Match Summary

Dorense in this Sergipano matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Dorense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Desportiva Aracaju
17%
Draws
13%
Dorense
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Desportiva Aracaju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Desportiva Aracaju have won more games recently than Dorense.
  • Desportiva Aracaju are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Desportiva Aracaju Clean Sheet 68%
Dorense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Desportiva Aracaju Dorense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 9
Draws 4 5
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 1.25 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 22, 2026 Sergipano
Desportiva Aracaju vs Dorense
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Desportiva Aracaju Compare

Top Goalscorer dos Santos D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Dorense Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedrinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Desportiva Aracaju 77 / 100
Dorense 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Desportiva Aracaju Dorense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DES Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Desportiva Aracaju scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Dorense let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Dorense's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Desportiva Aracaju VS Dorense
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Desportiva Aracaju

(Home)
14 Feb
Falcon
2 : 0
Desportiva Aracaju
11 Feb
Desportiva Aracaju
1 : 3
Lagarto
08 Feb
Guarany SE
2 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
04 Feb
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 2
Sergipe
31 Jan
America de Propria
0 : 0
Desportiva Aracaju
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Dorense

(Away)
14 Feb
Atletico Gloriense
5 : 0
Dorense
11 Feb
Dorense
1 : 2
Confianca
07 Feb
Sergipe
2 : 1
Dorense
04 Feb
Itabaiana
3 : 0
Dorense
31 Jan
Dorense
1 : 0
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sergipe962113:620
2Itabaiana952212:417
3Lagarto944116:816
4Confianca943210:615
5Guarany SE933310:1012
6America de Propria92618:812
7Falcon93248:1011
8Atletico Gloriense931514:1310
9Dorense92169:237
10Desportiva Aracaju90275:172
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)