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Desportiva Aracaju vs Lagarto - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Desportiva Aracaju Logo

Desportiva Aracaju

2 - 0
FT
Lagarto Logo

Lagarto

Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
David Santana
41' Event
Bruninho
60'
Wilker V.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. The second leg ended 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Desportiva Aracaju
20%
Draws
19%
Lagarto
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Desportiva Aracaju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Desportiva Aracaju come out ahead of Lagarto on wins alone.
  • Model gives Desportiva Aracaju a 61% chance of winning this.
  • Desportiva Aracaju have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Desportiva Aracaju, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Desportiva Aracaju have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Desportiva Aracaju Clean Sheet 68%
Lagarto Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Desportiva Aracaju Lagarto
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 17 12
Draws 5 10
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.83 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.15
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 19, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Desportiva Aracaju vs Lagarto
2:0
Aug 10, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Desportiva Aracaju vs Lagarto
2:0
Feb 11, 2026 Sergipano
Desportiva Aracaju vs Lagarto
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Desportiva Aracaju Compare

Top Goalscorer David Santana
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bruninho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Lagarto Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Desportiva Aracaju 95 / 100
Lagarto 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Desportiva Aracaju Lagarto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Desportiva Aracaju Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Desportiva Aracaju has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Desportiva Aracaju scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Lagarto conceded in 64% of 33 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.67 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Desportiva Aracaju VS Lagarto
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Desportiva Aracaju

(Home)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
Page 1 of 6

Lagarto

(Away)
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Lagarto
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Lagarto
1 : 2
Falcon
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Falcon 1
Atletico Gloriense 0
Desportiva Aracaju 2
Lagarto 0
Final
Falcon 0
Desportiva Aracaju 2