Sport Picks
Desportiva Aracaju vs Lagarto - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Brazil
Copa Governo (Sergipe) 
Match Events
30'
30'
Bruninho
39'
39'
Marcelinho
90'
90'
Jhones Germano
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
61%
20%
19%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Desportiva Aracaju
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
61%
/ High Confidence
- Desportiva Aracaju have won more games recently than Lagarto.
- Model gives Desportiva Aracaju a 61% chance of winning this.
- Desportiva Aracaju have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Desportiva Aracaju, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 3 times recently and Desportiva Aracaju have taken 2 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Desportiva Aracaju Clean Sheet 20%
Lagarto Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Desportiva Aracaju | Lagarto |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 33 |
| Wins | 17 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 10 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.87 | 1.15 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 0.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 19, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Desportiva Aracaju vs Lagarto
2:0
Aug 10, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Desportiva Aracaju vs Lagarto
2:0
Feb 11, 2026 Sergipano
Desportiva Aracaju vs Lagarto
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Desportiva Aracaju Compare
Top Goalscorer Bruninho
1 Goals Assists Leader Marcelinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Lagarto Compare
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Desportiva Aracaju 85 / 100
Lagarto 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Desportiva Aracaju Lagarto
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Desportiva Aracaju Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Desportiva Aracaju has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Attacking prowess: Desportiva Aracaju scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.
Defensive concern: Lagarto conceded in 64% of 33 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.67 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Desportiva Aracaju VS Lagarto
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Desportiva Aracaju
(Home) 30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2 Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0 Falcon
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0 Lagarto
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1 Desportiva Aracaju
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0 Lagarto
Page 1 of 6
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0 Falcon
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0 Lagarto
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0 Lagarto
01 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
3 : 2 America de Propria
11 Feb
Desportiva Aracaju
1 : 3 Lagarto
Page 1 of 3
Lagarto
(Away) 19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0 Lagarto
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0 Lagarto
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0 Lagarto
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0 Guarany SE
01 Aug
Lagarto
1 : 2 Falcon
Page 1 of 7
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0 Lagarto
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0 Lagarto
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0 Lagarto
29 Jul
America de Propria
0 : 1 Lagarto
27 Jun
CSA
2 : 0 Lagarto
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falcon | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9:1 | 15 |
| 2 | Desportiva Aracaju | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:4 | 10 |
| 3 | Lagarto | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 4 | Atletico Gloriense | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 5 | Guarany SE | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4:9 | 4 |
| 6 | America de Propria | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5:13 | 0 |
Promotion - Copa Governo (Sergipe) (Play Offs)
