Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023

Maria de Fonte

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Desportivo Moncao play Maria de Fonte in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Desportivo Moncao averaged 1.11 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. Maria de Fonte averaged 1 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. In past meetings, Desportivo Moncao won 1, Maria de Fonte won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 8, 2023 ended 2:6. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for Desportivo Moncao and 1.31 for Maria de Fonte. This points to a Maria de Fonte double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%

Desportivo Moncao

21%

Draws

41%

Maria de Fonte

Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Maria de Fonte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Desportivo Moncao picked up more points recently compared to Maria de Fonte.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 77%

Over 2.5 Goals 59%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

Desportivo Moncao Clean Sheet 18%

Maria de Fonte Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 69%

Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Desportivo Moncao	Maria de Fonte
Matches Played	36	32
Wins	8	8
Draws	7	7
Losses	21	17
Goals Scored	1.11	1
Goals Conceded	1.86	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A

Maria de Fonte vs Desportivo Moncao

Possession: 42% - 43% Cards: 1 - 1

2:6

Dec 18, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A

Desportivo Moncao vs Maria de Fonte

Possession: 60% - 55% Cards: 1 - 3

0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Desportivo Moncao 38 / 100

Maria de Fonte 40 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Desportivo Moncao Maria de Fonte

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Maria de Fonte or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26.5%

3.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.5%

1.89

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Desportivo Moncao attacking → ← attacking Maria de Fonte

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Desportivo Moncao scored in 69% of their last 36 games.

Maria de Fonte let in goals in 81% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

Desportivo Moncao went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Maria de Fonte lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 31

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Vianense	26	16	5	5	37:19	53
2	Amarante FC	26	14	9	3	43:25	51
3	Tirsense	26	14	2	10	39:25	44
4	Pevidem	26	13	4	9	37:30	43
5	Vila Mea	26	11	6	9	39:30	39
6	Vilar de Perdizes	26	8	12	6	33:32	36
7	Brito	26	9	8	9	21:28	35
8	Dumiense	26	9	7	10	34:35	34
9	Merelinense	26	8	9	9	32:32	33
10	Pedras Salgadas	26	8	8	10	27:28	32
11	Desportivo Moncao	26	7	6	13	34:45	27
12	Maria de Fonte	26	6	7	13	27:45	25
13	Sao Martinho	26	5	9	12	24:34	24
14	GD Braganca	26	5	6	15	20:39	21