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Diyala vs Al Shorta

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Farhan A.
56' Event
Ali H.

AI Match Summary

Al Shorta in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Shorta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Diyala
35%
Draws
45%
Al Shorta
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Shorta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al Shorta lately — more wins on the board than Diyala.
  • Model gives Al Shorta a 45% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Al Shorta here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Diyala Clean Sheet 19%
Al Shorta Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diyala Al Shorta
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 16
Draws 6 9
Losses 14 4
Goals Scored 1.07 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Shorta
0:2
Feb 21, 2026 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Diyala
2:1
May 18, 2025 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Diyala
1:0
Sep 26, 2024 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Shorta
0:6
Apr 30, 2011 Stars League
Diyala vs Al Shorta
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diyala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Al Shorta Compare

Top Goalscorer Farhan A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ali H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diyala 28 / 100
Al Shorta 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diyala Al Shorta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Shorta Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Diyala scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Diyala has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Al Shorta's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Diyala VS Al Shorta
1.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Diyala

(Home)
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
29 Aug
Diyala
3 : 3
Al Golan
25 Aug
Zakho
2 : 2
Diyala
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Al Shorta

(Away)
16 Sept
Al Shorta
1 : 0
Al Seeb
12 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Ghaz Al Shamal
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
30 Aug
Al Shorta
2 : 0
Al Mosul
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)