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Diyala vs Duhok

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Abdulsada M.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Diyala and Duhok finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Diyala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Diyala
35%
Draws
35%
Duhok
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Duhok's 1.27 goals per match outpaces what Diyala have produced (1.07).
  • Model gives Diyala a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Diyala Clean Sheet 18%
Duhok Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Diyala Duhok
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 6 11
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.07 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 1, 2026 Stars League
Diyala vs Duhok
1:0
Jan 17, 2026 Stars League
Duhok vs Diyala
1:0
Jun 1, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Duhok
2:1
Dec 8, 2024 Stars League
Duhok vs Diyala
3:1
Jul 1, 2011 Stars League
Duhok vs Diyala
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Diyala Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdulsada M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Duhok Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Diyala 36 / 100
Duhok 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Diyala Duhok

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Duhok has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Diyala found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Diyala has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Diyala VS Duhok
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Diyala

(Home)
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
29 Aug
Diyala
3 : 3
Al Golan
25 Aug
Zakho
2 : 2
Diyala
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Duhok

(Away)
13 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Duhok
08 Sept
Duhok
1 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
03 Sept
Duhok
2 : 1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
30 Aug
Newroz
0 : 0
Duhok
26 Aug
Al Naft
1 : 1
Duhok
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)