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Dominican Republic vs Nicaragua - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Estadio Cibao FC, Santiago
Dominican Republic Logo

Dominican Republic

3 - 2
FT
Nicaragua Logo

Nicaragua

Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Cole K.
5' Event
Morschel H.
Assist: Diaz M.
15' Event
Diaz M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The CONCACAF Nations League game between Dominican Republic and Nicaragua finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dominican Republic.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Dominican Republic
15%
Draws
0%
Nicaragua
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dominican Republic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Dominican Republic come out ahead of Nicaragua on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Dominican Republic's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular CONCACAF Nations League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Dominican Republic Clean Sheet 68%
Nicaragua Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dominican Republic Nicaragua
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 14 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 2.09 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Nicaragua vs Dominican Republic
1:2
Sep 25, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Dominican Republic vs Nicaragua
3:2
Nov 22, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Nicaragua vs Dominican Republic
0:0
Sep 8, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Dominican Republic vs Nicaragua
0:2
Nov 11, 2017 Friendly International
Dominican Republic vs Nicaragua
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dominican Republic Compare

Top Goalscorer Morschel H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diaz M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Nicaragua Compare

Top Goalscorer Perez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bonilla B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dominican Republic 95 / 100
Nicaragua 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dominican Republic Nicaragua

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dominican Republic Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dominican Republic's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Nicaragua lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Nicaragua let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Dominican Republic VS Nicaragua
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Dominican Republic

(Home)
05 Oct
Nicaragua
1 : 2
Dominican Republic
02 Oct
Dominican Republic
1 : 4
Haiti
28 Sept
Trinidad & Tobago
1 : 2
Dominican Republic
25 Sept
Dominican Republic
3 : 2
Nicaragua
04 Jun
Panama
4 : 2
Dominican Republic
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Nicaragua

(Away)
05 Oct
Nicaragua
1 : 2
Dominican Republic
02 Oct
Nicaragua
0 : 3
Costa Rica
28 Sept
Curacao
6 : 1
Nicaragua
25 Sept
Dominican Republic
3 : 2
Nicaragua
05 Jun
Paraguay
4 : 0
Nicaragua
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Curacao 4 3 1 0 12:5 10
2 Haiti 4 3 0 1 9:5 9
3 Dominican Republic 4 3 0 1 8:8 9
4 Costa Rica 4 2 0 2 8:6 6
5 Trinidad & Tobago 4 0 1 3 4:7 1
6 Nicaragua 4 0 0 4 4:14 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League (League A - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guatemala 4 2 1 1 9:3 7
2 Jamaica 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
3 Suriname 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
4 Honduras 4 1 1 2 5:6 4
5 Martinique 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
6 El Salvador 4 1 1 2 4:10 4
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League (League A - Play Offs)