Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Doncaster vs Southampton

England England

FA Cup 2025/2026 Eco-Power Stadium, Doncaster
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Bragg C.
24' Event
Archer C.
Assist: Downes F.
36'
McGrath J.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-3, with Southampton advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Doncaster
35%
Draws
55%
Southampton
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Southampton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Doncaster haven't matched Southampton's recent run of results.
  • Southampton are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Southampton arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Southampton, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Doncaster Clean Sheet 10%
Southampton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Doncaster Southampton
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 10 19
Draws 8 6
Losses 12 3
Goals Scored 1.23 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.27 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2026 FA Cup
Doncaster vs Southampton
2:3
Mar 24, 2012 Championship
Southampton vs Doncaster
2:0
Dec 3, 2011 Championship
Doncaster vs Southampton
1:0
Jan 17, 2009 Championship
Southampton vs Doncaster
1:2
Sep 27, 2008 Championship
Doncaster vs Southampton
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Doncaster Compare

Top Goalscorer Pearson M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gibson J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Southampton Compare

Top Goalscorer Bragg C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Archer C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Doncaster 10 / 100
Southampton 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Doncaster Southampton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Southampton Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Doncaster's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Southampton let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Doncaster has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Doncaster VS Southampton
1.25 Goals Scored 2.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Doncaster

(Home)
12 Sept
AFC Wimbledon
1 : 0
Doncaster
08 Sept
Doncaster
1 : 3
Huddersfield
05 Sept
Doncaster
2 : 3
Plymouth
01 Sept
Doncaster
1 : 1
Notts County
29 Aug
Stevenage
2 : 2
Doncaster
Page 1 of 6

Southampton

(Away)
12 Sept
Southampton
4 : 1
Bristol City
08 Sept
Southampton
3 : 1
Swansea
05 Sept
Lincoln City
1 : 1
Southampton
01 Sept
Birmingham
1 : 1
Southampton
29 Aug
Southampton
5 : 1
Millwall
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/128-finals
Wrexham -
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Nottingham -
Ipswich -
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Blackpool 1
Scunthorpe 0
Reading 2
Carlisle 3
Hull City -
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Blackburn -
Charlton -
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Chelsea -
Port Vale 5
Maldon & Tiptree 1
Bromley 1
Bristol Rovers 2
Fleetwood Town 2
Barnet 1
Luton 4
Forest Green 3
Bristol City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford -
Colchester 2
Milton Keynes Dons 3
Oldham 3
Northampton 1
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TBD -
Oxford Utd -
Everton -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
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Sunderland -
Boreham Wood 3
Crawley Town 0
Newport 3
Gillingham 2
Brackley 3
Notts County 2
Burton 6
St. Albans 0
West Ham -
TBD -
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QPR -
Slough Town 2
Altrincham 1
Macclesfield 6
AFC Totton 3
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Crystal Palace -
Sheffield Wed -
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Brentford -
Tranmere 1
Stockport County 3
Cambridge Utd 3
Chester 0
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Birmingham -
Derby -
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Leeds -
Norwich -
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AFC Wimbledon 0
Gateshead 2
Eastleigh 0
Walsall 3
Swansea -
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West Brom -
Tottenham -
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Aston Villa -
Newcastle Utd -
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Bournemouth -
Manchester City -
TBD -
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Halifax 0
Exeter 2
Wycombe 2
Plymouth 0
Salford 2
Lincoln City 1
Tamworth 0
Leyton Orient 1
Rotherham 1
Swindon 2
Bolton 2
Huddersfield 1
Grimsby 3
Ebbsfleet 1
Wealdstone 1
Southend 0
Chelmsford 4
Braintree 1
Weston-super-Mare 2
Aldershot 1
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Sutton 2
Telford 1
South Shields 1
Shrewsbury 3
Liverpool -
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TBD -
Peterborough 1
Cardiff 0
Barnsley 3
York City 2
Manchester United -
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Brighton -
Stoke City -
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Coventry -
Fulham -
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Middlesbrough -
Stevenage 0
Chesterfield 1
Crewe 1
Doncaster 2
TBD -
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Southampton -
Cheltenham 1
Bradford City 0
Buxton 2
Chatham 1
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Leicester -
Burnley -
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Millwall -
Sheffield Utd -
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Gainsborough 1
Accrington 2
Mansfield 3
Harrogate 2
Portsmouth -
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Arsenal -
Preston -
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TBD -
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Wigan 2
Hemel Hempstead 1
Spennymoor 0
Barrow 2
1/64-finals
Wrexham -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Ipswich -
TBD -
Blackpool 4
Carlisle 1
Hull City -
TBD -
TBD -
Blackburn -
Charlton -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Port Vale 1
Bristol Rovers 0
Fleetwood Town 3
Luton 2
Bristol City -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford -
Milton Keynes Dons 3
Oldham 1
TBD -
Oxford Utd -
Everton -
TBD -
TBD -
Sunderland -
Boreham Wood 3
Newport 0
Brackley 1
Burton 3
West Ham -
TBD -
TBD -
QPR -
Slough Town 1
Macclesfield 3
TBD -
Crystal Palace -
Sheffield Wed -
TBD -
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Brentford -
Stockport County 0
Cambridge Utd 1
TBD -
Birmingham -
Derby -
TBD -
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Leeds -
Norwich -
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Gateshead 0
Walsall 2
Swansea -
TBD -
TBD -
West Brom -
Tottenham -
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TBD -
Aston Villa -
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
Bournemouth -
Manchester City -
TBD -
Exeter 4
Wycombe 0
Salford 4
Leyton Orient 0
Swindon 4
Bolton 0
Grimsby 4
Wealdstone 0
Chelmsford 0
Weston-super-Mare 2
Wolves -
TBD -
Sutton 1
Shrewsbury 2
Liverpool -
TBD -
Peterborough 0
Barnsley 1
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Stoke City -
TBD -
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Coventry -
Fulham -
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Middlesbrough -
Chesterfield 1
Doncaster 2
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Southampton -
Cheltenham 6
Buxton 2
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Leicester -
Burnley -
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Millwall -
Sheffield Utd -
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Accrington 2
Mansfield 3
Portsmouth -
TBD -
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Arsenal -
Preston -
TBD -
Wigan 3
Barrow 2
1/32-finals
Wrexham 4
Nottingham 3
Ipswich 2
Blackpool 1
Hull City 1
Blackburn 0
Charlton 1
Chelsea 5
Port Vale 1
Fleetwood Town 0
Bristol City 5
Watford 1
Milton Keynes Dons 1
Oxford Utd 2
Everton 1
Sunderland 2
Boreham Wood 0
Burton 5
West Ham 2
QPR 1
Macclesfield 2
Crystal Palace 1
Sheffield Wed 0
Brentford 2
Cambridge Utd 2
Birmingham 3
Derby 1
Leeds 3
Norwich 5
Walsall 1
Swansea 2
West Brom 3
Tottenham 1
Aston Villa 2
Newcastle Utd 4
Bournemouth 3
Manchester City 10
Exeter 1
Salford 3
Swindon 2
Grimsby 3
Weston-super-Mare 2
Wolves 6
Shrewsbury 1
Liverpool 4
Barnsley 1
Manchester United 1
Brighton 2
Stoke City 1
Coventry 0
Fulham 3
Middlesbrough 1
Doncaster 2
Southampton 3
Cheltenham 0
Leicester 2
Burnley 5
Millwall 1
Sheffield Utd 3
Mansfield 4
Portsmouth 1
Arsenal 4
Preston 0
Wigan 1
1/16-finals
Wrexham 1
Ipswich 0
Hull City 0
Chelsea 4
Port Vale 1
Bristol City 0
Oxford Utd 0
Sunderland 1
Burton 0
West Ham 1
Macclesfield 0
Brentford 1
Birmingham 1
Leeds 2
Norwich 3
West Brom 1
Aston Villa 1
Newcastle Utd 3
Manchester City 2
Salford 0
Grimsby 0
Wolves 1
Liverpool 3
Brighton 0
Stoke City 1
Fulham 2
Southampton 2
Leicester 1
Burnley 1
Mansfield 2
Arsenal 4
Wigan 0
1/8-finals
Wrexham 2
Chelsea 4
Port Vale 1
Sunderland 0
West Ham 3
Brentford 2
Leeds 3
Norwich 0
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 3
Wolves 1
Liverpool 3
Fulham 0
Southampton 1
Mansfield 1
Arsenal 2
Quarter-finals
Chelsea 7
Port Vale 0
West Ham 2
Leeds 3
Manchester City 4
Liverpool 0
Southampton 2
Arsenal 1
Semi-finals
Chelsea 1
Leeds 0
Manchester City 2
Southampton 1
Final
Chelsea 0
Manchester City 1