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Stadium Background

Dourados vs Corumbaense

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense
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AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Dourados
30%
Draws
41%
Corumbaense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Corumbaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Corumbaense haven't matched Dourados's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Corumbaense a 41% chance of winning this.
  • Dourados have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Dourados, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Dourados Clean Sheet 18%
Corumbaense Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dourados Corumbaense
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 11 9
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.42 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 11, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Dourados
2:0
Mar 8, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Corumbaense
1:1
Feb 21, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Dourados
2:0
Feb 8, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Dourados
0:1
Apr 7, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Corumbaense
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dourados 28 / 100
Corumbaense 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dourados Corumbaense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Corumbaense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Dourados scored in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Corumbaense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Dourados remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Dourados VS Corumbaense
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Dourados

(Home)
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Dourados
3 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
21 Feb
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
15 Feb
Dourados
7 : 2
Bataguassu
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Corumbaense

(Away)
18 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Corumbaense
15 Mar
Corumbaense
1 : 2
Operario MS
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Costa Rica
0 : 2
Corumbaense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Operario MS -
TBD -
Corumbaense 3
Dourados 1
Naviraiense -
TBD -
Ivinhema 5
Bataguassu 6
Semi-finals
Operario MS 4
Corumbaense 2
Naviraiense 1
Bataguassu 4
Final
Operario MS 5
Bataguassu 2