Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dresden vs Aarau

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Ceka J.
63' Event
Afriyie D.
72' Event
Senyurt B.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Dresden and Aarau finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dresden.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Dresden
30%
Draws
37%
Aarau
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aarau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Dresden carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 33% — that's where the model lands on Dresden taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Dresden Clean Sheet 11%
Aarau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dresden Aarau
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 14
Draws 5 8
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 2.45 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 6, 2026 Club Friendly
Dresden vs Aarau
3:2
Jan 20, 2019 Club Friendly
Dresden vs Aarau
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dresden Compare

Top Goalscorer Ceka J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lemmer J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Afriyie D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Senyurt B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dresden 56 / 100
Aarau 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dresden Aarau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dresden Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dresden found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).

Aarau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Dresden went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dresden VS Aarau
2 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Dresden

(Home)
12 Sept
Braunschweig
2 : 2
Dresden
05 Sept
Dresden
1 : 2
Bochum
29 Aug
Heidenheim
5 : 3
Dresden
23 Aug
Westfalia Rhynern
0 : 6
Dresden
16 Aug
Dresden
1 : 0
Darmstadt
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Aarau

(Away)
18 Sept
Winterthur
2 : 1
Aarau
12 Sept
Aarau
2 : 2
Kriens
04 Sept
Aarau
3 : 2
Rapperswil-Jona
31 Aug
Wil
2 : 2
Aarau
28 Aug
Aarau
2 : 1
Xamax
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