Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dresden vs Aarau

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Ceka J.
63' Event
Afriyie D.
72' Event
Senyurt B.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Dresden and Aarau finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dresden.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Dresden
6%
Draws
4%
Aarau
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Dresden

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Dresden carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Dresden taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Dresden Clean Sheet 20%
Aarau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dresden Aarau
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 16 13
Draws 4 6
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 3.63 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 3.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 6, 2026 Club Friendly
Dresden vs Aarau
3:2
Jan 20, 2019 Club Friendly
Dresden vs Aarau
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dresden Compare

Top Goalscorer Ceka J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lemmer J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.79
Avg xA / game 1.81

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Afriyie D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Senyurt B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dresden 85 / 100
Aarau 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dresden Aarau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SGD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dresden found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).

Aarau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 27 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Dresden went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dresden VS Aarau
3.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Dresden

(Home)
25 Jul
Dresden
2 : 1
Energie Cottbus
25 Jul
Dresden
1 : 2
Energie Cottbus
18 Jul
Grazer AK
0 : 5
Dresden
11 Jul
Dresden
4 : 0
Kassel
03 Jul
Bautzen
0 : 14
Dresden
Page 1 of 6

Aarau

(Away)
24 Jul
Etoile-Carouge
3 : 0
Aarau
18 Jul
Aarau
2 : 1
Union Berlin
10 Jul
A. Lustenau
1 : 0
Aarau
30 Jun
Aarau
1 : 3
St. Gallen II
21 May
Grasshoppers
2 : 1
Aarau
Page 1 of 6