Sport Picks
Dresden vs Holstein Kiel
Germany
2. Bundesliga 2025/2026 Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dresden 
Match Events
1'
1'
Rossipal A.
14'
14'
Vermeij V.
Assist: Rossipal A.
36'
36'
Vermeij V.
Assist: Amoako K.
AI Match Summary
Dresden in this 2. Bundesliga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Dresden.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Holstein Kiel
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
31%
/ Low Confidence
- Holstein Kiel haven't matched Dresden's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Dresden's way, sitting at 60%.
- Regular 2. Bundesliga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Dresden Clean Sheet 16%
Holstein Kiel Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Dresden | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 8 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 2.4 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.27 | 1.72 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 17, 2026 2. Bundesliga
Dresden vs Holstein Kiel
2:1
Dec 20, 2025 2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs Dresden
2:1
Apr 16, 2022 2. Bundesliga
Dresden vs Holstein Kiel
0:0
Nov 5, 2021 2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs Dresden
2:1
Jun 18, 2020 2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs Dresden
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Dresden Compare
Top Goalscorer Vermeij V.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Holstein Kiel Compare
Top Goalscorer Harres P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Dresden 57 / 100
Holstein Kiel 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Dresden Holstein Kiel
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Dresden Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Dresden's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Holstein Kiel let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.
H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Dresden remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Dresden VS Holstein Kiel
2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Dresden
(Home) 19 Sept
Dresden
1 : 2 Hertha Berlin
12 Sept
Braunschweig
2 : 2 Dresden
05 Sept
Dresden
1 : 2 Bochum
29 Aug
Heidenheim
5 : 3 Dresden
23 Aug
Westfalia Rhynern
0 : 6 Dresden
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Dresden
1 : 2 Hertha Berlin
05 Sept
Dresden
1 : 2 Bochum
16 Aug
Dresden
1 : 0 Darmstadt
01 Aug
Dresden
2 : 1 Union Berlin
25 Jul
Dresden
2 : 1 Energie Cottbus
Page 1 of 4
Holstein Kiel
(Away) 19 Sept
Holstein Kiel
1 : 1 VfL Osnabruck
13 Sept
Heidenheim
1 : 0 Holstein Kiel
05 Sept
Holstein Kiel
2 : 2 Nurnberg
30 Aug
Magdeburg
2 : 0 Holstein Kiel
22 Aug
Munich 1860
0 : 2 Holstein Kiel
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Heidenheim
1 : 0 Holstein Kiel
30 Aug
Magdeburg
2 : 0 Holstein Kiel
22 Aug
Munich 1860
0 : 2 Holstein Kiel
08 Aug
Darmstadt
2 : 2 Holstein Kiel
29 Jul
Hoffenheim
3 : 1 Holstein Kiel
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schalke | 34 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 50:31 | 70 |
| 2 | Elversberg | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 64:39 | 62 |
| 3 | Paderborn | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 59:45 | 62 |
| 4 | Hannover | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 60:44 | 60 |
| 5 | Darmstadt | 34 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 57:45 | 52 |
| 6 | Kaiserslautern | 34 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 52:47 | 52 |
| 7 | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 47:44 | 51 |
| 8 | Nurnberg | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47:45 | 46 |
| 9 | Bochum | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 49:47 | 44 |
| 10 | Karlsruher | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 53:64 | 44 |
| 11 | Dresden | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54:53 | 41 |
| 12 | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 44:48 | 41 |
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 53:51 | 39 |
| 14 | Magdeburg | 34 | 12 | 3 | 19 | 52:58 | 39 |
| 15 | Braunschweig | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 36:54 | 37 |
| 16 | Greuther Furth | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 49:68 | 37 |
| 17 | Dusseldorf | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 33:53 | 37 |
| 18 | Preussen Munster | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:61 | 30 |
Promotion - Bundesliga (Main)
Promotion - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 3. Liga (Main)
Relegation - 3. Liga (Main)
