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Dumbarton vs St. Mirren B

Scotland Scotland

Challenge Cup Dumbarton Football Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Dumbarton play St. Mirren B in the Challenge Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Dumbarton averaged 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded. St. Mirren B averaged 1.42 goals scored and 2.75 conceded. In past meetings, Dumbarton won 1, St. Mirren B won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 12, 2025 ended 4:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.50 for Dumbarton and 2.50 for St. Mirren B. This points to a Dumbarton double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Dumbarton
22%
Draws
26%
St. Mirren B
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Dumbarton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Dumbarton picked up more points recently compared to St. Mirren B.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.50 vs 2.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 90%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Dumbarton Clean Sheet 10%
St. Mirren B Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 81%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dumbarton St. Mirren B
Matches Played 29 12
Wins 6 2
Draws 7 2
Losses 16 8
Goals Scored 1.14 1.42
Goals Conceded 2.14 2.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 4.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 4.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 12, 2025 Challenge Cup
Dumbarton vs St. Mirren B
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dumbarton Compare

Top Goalscorer Tomlinson S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Johnston C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

St. Mirren B Compare

Top Goalscorer Mooney E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Taylor F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.64
Avg xA / game 2.22

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dumbarton 49 / 100
St. Mirren B 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dumbarton St. Mirren B

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Dumbarton or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18%
2.27
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Dumbarton attacking → ← attacking St. Mirren B

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dumbarton scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

St. Mirren B let in goals in 100% of their last 12 matches.

Games between these two average 6.00 goals.

Dumbarton went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

St. Mirren B lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 8
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 4.00
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 4.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Inverness660026:418
2Stenhousemuir660018:218
3Montrose651018:916
4East Fife641117:913
5Stranraer641112:613
6East Kilbride640213:1112
7Forfar Athletic640210:812
8Edinburgh City640211:1012
9Spartans632114:811
10Elgin City632111:911
11Dumbarton632110:811
12Annan631215:1010
13Alloa631217:1410
14Kelty Hearts63129:610
15Clyde631214:1210
16Queen of the South631212:1010
17Hamilton631213:89
18Stirling63039:99
19Cove Rangers62229:68
20Peterhead622210:108
21Celtic B620412:156
22Hearts B62049:146
23Hibernian B612311:145
24St. Mirren B61149:154
25Dundee Utd B61055:183
26Aberdeen B60159:201
27Motherwell B60152:171
28Rangers B60066:160
29Kilmarnock B60063:190
30Dundee FC B60064:210