Sport Picks

Scotland

League Cup Dumbarton Football Stadium

St. Mirren

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Dumbarton play St. Mirren in the League Cup. St. Mirren are favorites here. Recently, Dumbarton averaged 1 goals scored and 2.14 conceded. St. Mirren averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Dumbarton won 0, St. Mirren won 5, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 28, 2025 ended 0:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Dumbarton and 1.63 for St. Mirren. This points to a St. Mirren double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

Dumbarton

15%

Draws

58%

St. Mirren

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: St. Mirren

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence

Dumbarton picked up more points recently compared to St. Mirren.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.63 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 84%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Dumbarton Clean Sheet 14%

St. Mirren Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 76%

Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Dumbarton	St. Mirren
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	5	10
Draws	7	6
Losses	17	14
Goals Scored	1	1.03
Goals Conceded	2.14	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.38	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2025 Club Friendly

Dumbarton vs St. Mirren

Possession: 60% - 56% Cards: 2 - 3

0:4

Jul 4, 2023 Club Friendly

Dumbarton vs St. Mirren

Possession: 50% - 54% Cards: 3 - 2

0:3

Jul 10, 2021 League Cup

Dumbarton vs St. Mirren

Possession: 42% - 45% Cards: 1 - 1

0:3

Jul 28, 2018 League Cup

St. Mirren vs Dumbarton

Possession: 53% - 52% Cards: 2 - 4

6:0

Mar 27, 2018 Championship

St. Mirren vs Dumbarton

Possession: 58% - 56% Cards: 2 - 4

5:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dumbarton 27 / 100

St. Mirren 54 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Dumbarton St. Mirren

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St. Mirren Win (2)

Secondary Pick St. Mirren & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +42%

5.26

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Dumbarton attacking → ← attacking St. Mirren

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dumbarton scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

St. Mirren let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Dumbarton went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

St. Mirren lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 36

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

2.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75