Sport Picks

Scotland

League Cup Dumbarton Football Stadium, Dumbarton

Dumbarton

0 - 4

St. Mirren

Our Tip

Match Events

Ramos S.

Assist: Fraser M.

22'

Sub

Spence L. In: Blair R.

Out: Spence L.

39'

Mochrie C. R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-4. The second leg ended 0-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%

Dumbarton

15%

Draws

34%

St. Mirren

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dumbarton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and St. Mirren come out ahead of Dumbarton on wins alone.
51% — that's where the model lands on Dumbarton taking it.
St. Mirren arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor St. Mirren, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
History favors St. Mirren here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%

Dumbarton Clean Sheet 11%

St. Mirren Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Dumbarton	St. Mirren
Matches Played	28	30
Wins	8	12
Draws	5	4
Losses	15	14
Goals Scored	1.25	1.33
Goals Conceded	2.14	1.6
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 League Cup

Dumbarton vs St. Mirren

0:4

Jun 28, 2025 Club Friendly

Dumbarton vs St. Mirren

0:4

Jul 4, 2023 Club Friendly

Dumbarton vs St. Mirren

0:3

Jul 10, 2021 League Cup

Dumbarton vs St. Mirren

0:3

Jul 28, 2018 League Cup

St. Mirren vs Dumbarton

6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dumbarton Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

St. Mirren Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramos S.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Mochrie C. R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.65

Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dumbarton 65 / 100

St. Mirren 14 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Dumbarton St. Mirren

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dumbarton Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 4:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Dumbarton found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

St. Mirren's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

St. Mirren's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Dumbarton VS St. Mirren

1 Goals Scored 1.13

2.5 Goals Conceded 1.75

88% Over 1.5 63%

75% Over 2.5 50%

50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Dumbarton

(Home)

19 Sept

Dumbarton

3 : 0

Spartans

12 Sept

Stranraer

3 : 1

Dumbarton

08 Sept

Cove Rangers

6 : 1

Dumbarton

05 Sept

Dumbarton

2 : 1

Elgin City

29 Aug

Annan

2 : 0

Dumbarton

Page 1 of 6

St. Mirren

(Away)

19 Sept

St. Mirren

0 : 3

Dundee Utd

09 Sept

Rangers

1 : 0

St. Mirren

05 Sept

St. Mirren

1 : 2

Celtic

02 Sept

Kilmarnock

0 : 1

St. Mirren

30 Aug

St. Mirren

3 : 3

Motherwell

Page 1 of 6