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Dunfermline vs Aberdeen - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Milne J.
44' Event
Bray K.
46'
Sub
Ntelo M. In: Armstrong S.
Out: Ntelo M.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Dunfermline and Aberdeen finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aberdeen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Dunfermline
30%
Draws
37%
Aberdeen
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aberdeen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Aberdeen's 1.57 goals per match outpaces what Dunfermline have produced (1.3).
  • Model gives Aberdeen a 37% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Dunfermline Clean Sheet 19%
Aberdeen Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dunfermline Aberdeen
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 14
Draws 7 4
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.3 1.57
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Club Friendly
Dunfermline vs Aberdeen
1:4
Mar 7, 2026 Scottish Cup
Dunfermline vs Aberdeen
3:0
Feb 9, 2025 Scottish Cup
Aberdeen vs Dunfermline
3:0
Sep 26, 2012 League Cup
Dunfermline vs Aberdeen
0:1
Apr 28, 2012 Premiership
Dunfermline vs Aberdeen
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dunfermline Compare

Top Goalscorer Bray K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Aberdeen Compare

Top Goalscorer Mouloua A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Milne J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dunfermline 16 / 100
Aberdeen 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dunfermline Aberdeen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aberdeen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dunfermline found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Aberdeen let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Dunfermline has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Dunfermline VS Aberdeen
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Dunfermline

(Home)
03 Oct
Dunfermline
1 : 4
Aberdeen
19 Sept
Morton
0 : 1
Dunfermline
12 Sept
Dunfermline
2 : 0
Queen's Park
05 Sept
Arbroath
1 : 1
Dunfermline
28 Aug
Dunfermline
1 : 0
Raith
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Aberdeen

(Away)
03 Oct
Dunfermline
1 : 4
Aberdeen
19 Sept
Hibernian
1 : 1
Aberdeen
15 Sept
Motherwell
0 : 4
Aberdeen
12 Sept
Kilmarnock
1 : 2
Aberdeen
05 Sept
Aberdeen
0 : 0
Kilmarnock
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