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Duque Caxiense vs Paraty

Brazil Brazil

Carioca C 2025
Duque Caxiense Logo

Duque Caxiense

0 - 1
FT
Paraty Logo

Paraty

Our Tip

Match Events

81' Event
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Paraty in this Carioca C 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paraty.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Duque Caxiense
20%
Draws
50%
Paraty
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Paraty

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Paraty have won more games recently than Duque Caxiense.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Duque Caxiense Clean Sheet 10%
Paraty Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Duque Caxiense Paraty
Matches Played 12 30
Wins 3 12
Draws 1 5
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.25 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 4, 2025 Carioca C
Duque Caxiense vs Paraty
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Duque Caxiense 29 / 100
Paraty 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Duque Caxiense Paraty

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DUQ Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paraty let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Duque Caxiense scored in 58% of their last 12 games.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Duque Caxiense stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Duque Caxiense VS Paraty
1.5 Goals Scored 2.13
2 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Duque Caxiense

(Home)
10 Aug
Buzios
2 : 5
Duque Caxiense
04 Aug
Duque Caxiense
0 : 1
Paraty
20 Jul
Rio Barra
2 : 1
Duque Caxiense
14 Jul
Duque Caxiense
0 : 3
Uniao Central
06 Jul
Juventus RJ
2 : 0
Duque Caxiense
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Paraty

(Away)
09 Nov
Goytacaz
3 : 2
Paraty
06 Nov
Paraty
0 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
26 Oct
Barra Mansa
1 : 2
Paraty
20 Oct
Paraty
1 : 1
7 de Abril
12 Oct
Serra Macaense
2 : 2
Paraty
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paraty 12 9 1 2 33:11 28
2 Santa Cruz RJ 12 8 3 1 39:14 27
3 Riostrense 12 8 2 2 29:11 26
4 Uniao Central 12 7 3 2 34:18 24
5 Juventus RJ 12 7 3 2 24:9 24
6 EC Vera Cruz 12 6 2 4 18:11 20
7 Angra dos Reis 12 6 1 5 24:21 19
8 Rio Barra 11 4 0 7 12:24 12
9 Buzios 12 4 0 8 16:33 12
10 Duque Caxiense 12 3 1 8 15:19 10
11 Caac Brazil 12 3 0 9 10:35 9
12 Mesquita 12 2 1 9 8:28 7
13 Barcelona EC 11 1 1 9 5:33 4
Promotion - Carioca C 2025 (Play Offs)