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EC Campo Grande vs Comercial MS

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2
Sat, Jul 18, 2026
VS
11:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

EC Campo Grande play Comercial MS in the Sul-Matogrossense 2. Comercial MS are favorites here. Recently, EC Campo Grande averaged 0.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Comercial MS averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. In past meetings, EC Campo Grande won 3, Comercial MS won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 12, 2025 ended 3-1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.79 for EC Campo Grande and 1.29 for Comercial MS. This points to a Comercial MS double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
EC Campo Grande
22%
Draws
60%
Comercial MS
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Comercial MS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Comercial MS has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to EC Campo Grande.
  • Model forecasts a 60% win probability edge for Comercial MS.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Sul-Matogrossense 2 provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
EC Campo Grande Clean Sheet 19%
Comercial MS Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EC Campo Grande Comercial MS
Matches Played 3 33
Wins 0 11
Draws 1 8
Losses 2 14
Goals Scored 0.2 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.20 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.20 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
EC Campo Grande vs Comercial MS
3-1
Apr 12, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Comercial MS vs EC Campo Grande
1-0
Mar 12, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
EC Campo Grande vs Comercial MS
2-1
Feb 12, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Comercial MS vs EC Campo Grande
1-0
Jan 12, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
EC Campo Grande vs Comercial MS
2-1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EC Campo Grande 20 / 100
Comercial MS 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EC Campo Grande Comercial MS

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ESP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EC Campo Grande scored in 33% of their last 3 games.

Comercial MS let in goals in 82% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

EC Campo Grande went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Comercial MS lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

EC Campo Grande VS Comercial MS
0.2 Goals Scored 1.38
1.2 Goals Conceded 1.38
60% Over 1.5 75%
20% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Uniao ABC32015:16
2Comercial MS32015:36
3Misto32015:46
4Aquidauanense32012:26
57 de Setembro31115:44
6Esporte Clube Taveiropolis31022:33
7Sao Gabriel MS31023:53
8EC Campo Grande30121:61