Sport Picks

Stadium Background

EC Sao Bernardo vs Matonense

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 2023
EC Sao Bernardo Logo

EC Sao Bernardo

2 - 1
FT
Matonense Logo

Matonense

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

EC Sao Bernardo in this Paulista A3 2023 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored EC Sao Bernardo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
EC Sao Bernardo
15%
Draws
46%
Matonense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Matonense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • EC Sao Bernardo have won more games recently than Matonense.
  • 46% — that's where the model lands on Matonense taking it.
  • Regular Paulista A3 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
EC Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 10%
Matonense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EC Sao Bernardo Matonense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 8 3
Losses 10 19
Goals Scored 1.4 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2024 Paulista A3
Matonense vs EC Sao Bernardo
1:2
Apr 8, 2023 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Matonense
2:1
Apr 2, 2023 Paulista A3
Matonense vs EC Sao Bernardo
1:0
Mar 18, 2023 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Matonense
1:3
Jan 30, 2022 Paulista A3
Matonense vs EC Sao Bernardo
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EC Sao Bernardo 10 / 100
Matonense 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EC Sao Bernardo Matonense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matonense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Matonense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

EC Sao Bernardo's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: EC Sao Bernardo stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

EC Sao Bernardo VS Matonense
1.75 Goals Scored 3.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

EC Sao Bernardo

(Home)
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1
Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Santo Andre
1 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
15 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 3
Sao Jose EC
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 6

Matonense

(Away)
18 Jul
Flamengo SP
3 : 1
Matonense
11 Jul
Matonense
0 : 1
Flamengo SP
04 Jul
Matonense
0 : 0
Assisense
27 Jun
Assisense
0 : 1
Matonense
20 Jun
Matonense
2 : 1
Mogi Mirim
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Capivariano 6 4 1 1 11:8 13
2 EC Sao Bernardo 6 3 1 2 9:4 10
3 Marilia 6 2 1 3 5:6 7
4 Matonense 6 1 1 4 5:12 4
Promotion - Paulista A3 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gremio Prudente 6 2 3 1 8:7 9
2 Sao Jose EC 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
3 Desportivo 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
4 Uniao Suzano 6 2 1 3 7:8 7
Promotion - Paulista A3 2023 (Play Offs)