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EC Sao Bernardo vs Portuguesa Santista

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Lucas Xavier
63' Event
Pinto P.
90' Event
Xilu

AI Match Summary

Portuguesa Santista in this Paulista A3 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Portuguesa Santista.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
EC Sao Bernardo
17%
Draws
70%
Portuguesa Santista
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Portuguesa Santista

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Portuguesa Santista have won more games recently than EC Sao Bernardo.
  • Model gives Portuguesa Santista a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Portuguesa Santista have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
EC Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 15%
Portuguesa Santista Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EC Sao Bernardo Portuguesa Santista
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 17
Draws 11 7
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1.63 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Portuguesa Santista
0:3
Sep 3, 2023 Copa Paulista
EC Sao Bernardo vs Portuguesa Santista
0:1
Jul 30, 2023 Copa Paulista
Portuguesa Santista vs EC Sao Bernardo
2:1
Apr 24, 2021 Paulista A2
EC Sao Bernardo vs Portuguesa Santista
1:2
Feb 18, 2018 Paulista A3
Portuguesa Santista vs EC Sao Bernardo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

EC Sao Bernardo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Portuguesa Santista Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Xavier
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pinto P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EC Sao Bernardo 15 / 100
Portuguesa Santista 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EC Sao Bernardo Portuguesa Santista

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EC Sao Bernardo's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

EC Sao Bernardo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Portuguesa Santista let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

EC Sao Bernardo VS Portuguesa Santista
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Portuguesa Santista15120326:936
2Marilia1595123:632
3Rio Preto EC1585224:1329
4XV de Jau1583416:1127
5Rio Claro1574419:1625
6Uniao Barbarense1566316:1424
7EC Sao Bernardo1565422:1523
8Paulista1565420:1323
9Uniao Sao Joao1564516:1522
10Catanduva FC1556416:1521
11Bandeirante1546515:1918
12Rio Branco SP1544713:2416
13Francana15311113:2210
14Itapirense15231014:269
15Desportivo151598:258
16Uniao Suzano15121210:285